TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PlayTimeof PlayTime, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$281,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a5c…a375backed Nigma Galaxy44c189,051$84,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,049.033438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PlayTime56c174,437$97,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,015.321,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed PlayTime55c32,736$18,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,730.975549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Nigma Galaxy43c23,211$9,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,980.7240051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked PlayTime60c4,872$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.6722842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy26c3,701$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.871,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Nigma Galaxy40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nigma Galaxy35c2,785$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.55930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy43c1,864$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.291,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked PlayTime56c1,778$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.878469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Nigma Galaxy40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.8181029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0352…86b0backed PlayTime57c1,748$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PlayTime59c1,467$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.712,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed PlayTime63c1,387$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.0343067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Nigma Galaxy33c1,379$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.843049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy35c1,370$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.6677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed PlayTime50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6008847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Nigma Galaxy26c1,129$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.4679341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked PlayTime73c1,125$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.441,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Nigma Galaxy42c1,093$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1820367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PlayTime71c1,047$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.592,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Nigma Galaxy41c1,023$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7466947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked PlayTime74c986.14$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.251,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nigma Galaxy35c955.97$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed PlayTime59c899.99$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36914562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa00…f736backed PlayTime63c776.45$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.232070%14 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Nigma Galaxy43c772.78$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2917146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Nigma Galaxy22c752.16$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.89044.4%40 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nigma Galaxy40c716.87$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4156243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PlayTime67c639.24$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.461,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed PlayTime72c559.23$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2386451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked PlayTime60c552.55$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.1245052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed PlayTime55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4534051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy46c538.68$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1342145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Nigma Galaxy31c403.2$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.522245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked PlayTime70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54f6…b0f2backed PlayTime57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Nigma Galaxy29c340.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3150032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd9ea…706cbacked Nigma Galaxy41c309.39$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8510941.3%45 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PlayTime77c300.15$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Nigma Galaxy33c300$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Nigma Galaxy19c269.19$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c09…b6ffbacked PlayTime67c262.92$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.927156.3%40 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Nigma Galaxy33c252.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2620535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed PlayTime78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb39a…abedbacked PlayTime74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654062.5%25 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356f…639fbacked PlayTime70c228$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PlayTime63c223.46$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0968649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Nigma Galaxy45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed PlayTime56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked PlayTime60c199.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8028050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…93b0backed PlayTime57c195$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8512260.7%74 W · 48 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Nigma Galaxy20c194.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2712432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9e4…7161backed Nigma Galaxy27c175.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed PlayTime52c171.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5826050.4%131 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PlayTime50c171$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.51,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed PlayTime59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4917443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PlayTime63c150.89$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked PlayTime56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Nigma Galaxy44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6640844.1%180 W · 228 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed Nigma Galaxy19c146.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8212054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed PlayTime67c146.79$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7916152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x326f…1a19backed PlayTime57c132.28$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.287456.8%42 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy34c122.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.191,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed PlayTime59c120.83$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5535430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Nigma Galaxy42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.458356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nigma Galaxy41c117$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9719857.1%113 W · 85 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked PlayTime59c114$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7454058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Nigma Galaxy43c112.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.451553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked PlayTime59c110.85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6669033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Nigma Galaxy43c107.14$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Nigma Galaxy35c107$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f90…a39fbacked PlayTime57c106.74$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.914563.4%92 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PlayTime61c106.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.191,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed PlayTime69c104.9$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked PlayTime59c104$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4515536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Nigma Galaxy39c101.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.983129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Nigma Galaxy21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.530834.1%105 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Nigma Galaxy43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4322752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Nigma Galaxy43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4332441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed PlayTime54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4626154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed PlayTime59c98.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2667853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Nigma Galaxy26c96.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514030.7%43 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked PlayTime46c94.7$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1433854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed PlayTime59c87.89$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…bfbfbacked PlayTime57c87.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d2…83b3backed PlayTime70c86.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2511563.5%73 W · 42 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Nigma Galaxy36c82.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.911150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed PlayTime59c79.78$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6846150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fb…f9d1backed PlayTime53c79.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2216240.7%66 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Nigma Galaxy46c77.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4633041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Nigma Galaxy46c76.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521344.1%94 W · 119 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nigma Galaxy28c73.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4853139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked PlayTime79c73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.339948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed PlayTime58c71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5816837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed PlayTime69c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.426661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked PlayTime55c69.09$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.095255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e46…1b5fbacked PlayTime74c69.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.892055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5c…e5aabacked Nigma Galaxy29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy41c68.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.