La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd85f586289316788bf2ecf94004bdb86fba5087fc69c852344f73059f793b03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 80c | 5,688$4,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 20c | 3,771$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.17 | 502 | 49.6%249 W · 253 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 17c | 1,510$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.75 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 1,185$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 21c | 1,010$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Over | 15c | 677.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…0beebacked Over | 22c | 500.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 20c | 498$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 452.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 24c | 412.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 44c | 308$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 68c | 294.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 16c | 223.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 25c | 193.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 156.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,035 | 47.9%496 W · 539 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 16c | 138.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 55c | 121$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 46c | 119$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Over | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 836 | 40%334 W · 502 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 29c | 103.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 82.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,497 | 38.6%578 W · 919 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 16c | 69.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 595 | 55.5%330 W · 265 L | +31.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Over | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 78c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 95 | 71.6%68 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…f67dbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1226backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Rayo Vallecano de Madrid won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5)Athletic Club won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.