TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes39c515.07$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2751733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes38c339.06$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0146240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c322.7$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.535,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes29c305.17$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.453641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c273.41$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.315,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes37c199$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8742544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c159.71$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No28c153.85$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes75c140.13$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5231043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c139$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.764,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c136.28$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes52c135$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c128.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes44c122.68$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes37c121.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4525946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No63c118.82$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8110966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes31c115.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No71c113.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.889679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes39c112.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.943740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c111.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.843,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c105.95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.629,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes32c105.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.696,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c104.41$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.412,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No63c99.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c96.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.693,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No56c93.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.952,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes40c92.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8119252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No69c89.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.185381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No69c89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No61c87.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.611,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c83.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.163,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c79.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.193,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No65c77.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.95,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes40c74.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307163.4%45 W · 26 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c73.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.34,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No43c72.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No65c71.73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.253,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes71c70.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes48c69.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.360739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked Yes69c68.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4411753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c68.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.285,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes63c64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No60c62.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1680957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.762,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes55c59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3922746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.192,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c57.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.261,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No47c55.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.428950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes72c55.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes36c55.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c54.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes36c54.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c52.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.821,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes35c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.222454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.553353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.513738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No34c49.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.921,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes57c48.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.651,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed Yes71c48.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.886269.4%43 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No45c46.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.742,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59b0…56e8backed Yes37c45.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172045%9 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b0…1402backed Yes38c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0216339.9%65 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes38c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2120833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c43.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c43.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.392,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes64c43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5222744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes35c42.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.848,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f4…7b63backed Yes47c42.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aac…bc3bbacked Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No65c40.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2933154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf3…aa88backed Yes64c39.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes38c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.795543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c37.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes32c37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8494919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes78c36.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes34c36.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.352,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a9…ab06backed Yes61c36.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes32c36.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.518856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed No56c35.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.959335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe801…764fbacked No66c35.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.965872.4%42 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.154951%25 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No62c34.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No52c34.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.432,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2012…42c3backed Yes71c34.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes38c33.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.852035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c33.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes45c33.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes33c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.564940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes35c31.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.947,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c31.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.672,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes41c30.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.427732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes44c30.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.179262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.