Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd47459225cdddbf1fff441f1eb69d08ede82dc6adef3742aa787833cde3705d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 694.43$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.75 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 392.51$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 44c | 340.61$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 322.7$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 288.76$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 45c | 232.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 229$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 197.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 49c | 167.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 161.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 43c | 152.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 150.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 145.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 126.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 122.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 121.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 53c | 119$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 35c | 113.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 112.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 112.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 47c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 104.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 100.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 97.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 92.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 89.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 86.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 83.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 50c | 79.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 47c | 77.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…2cdabacked Yes | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 74.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 50c | 73.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 42c | 72.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 49c | 72.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 43c | 70.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 70.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 70.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 69.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 69.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 64.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 49c | 63.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 48c | 62.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 44c | 61.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 61.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 58.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 39c | 58.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 58.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 56c | 57.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 32c | 56.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 54.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 68c | 52.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 52.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 48c | 52.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 42c | 49.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 47c | 48.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 47.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 43c | 46.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 46.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 44.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 44.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 41.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 57c | 41.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…2ebebacked Yes | 54c | 37.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 55c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 48c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 56c | 35.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 33.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 32.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed No | 44c | 32.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 43c | 31.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 26.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 26.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 64c | 25.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.