TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof 1win, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$797,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,016,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team53c106,130$56,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,1001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BetBoom Team41c51,755$21,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,409.7371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked 1win56c31,660$17,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,014.3313960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed 1win40c25,000$10,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,899.9712348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked BetBoom Team45c24,745$11,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,015.4150347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed BetBoom Team59c19,394$11,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,442.5542650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked 1win44c18,334$7,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,337.1189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked 1win47c15,123$7,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,053.6841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed BetBoom Team55c15,000$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,249.9530452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked BetBoom Team60c13,563$8,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,168.451,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked BetBoom Team61c12,133$7,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,436.9224246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed 1win60c11,581$6,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,668.3916553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed 1win56c10,058$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,433.3918950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed 1win80c10,000$7,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.3930667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed 1win46c9,206$4,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,016.8341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked 1win47c9,000$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,77010540%42 W · 63 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe816…1b93backed BetBoom Team37c8,981$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked BetBoom Team50c8,926$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56a6…e5aebacked 1win44c7,300$3,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.993164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team39c7,144$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.031,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BetBoom Team58c6,808$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,980.7880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1305…46d2backed BetBoom Team51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.992955.2%16 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked 1win39c5,861$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.221,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed 1win80c5,530$4,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.9610075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team42c5,514$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,302.431,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked 1win39c5,467$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,325.625446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed 1win47c4,860$2,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.829042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed 1win48c4,800$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,47353758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed 1win66c4,368$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.077255.6%40 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed 1win60c4,062$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.2318660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed BetBoom Team54c3,810$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.412350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed BetBoom Team64c3,775$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,416.13714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-78.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ffc…3dd9backed 1win46c3,585$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.131741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked 1win47c3,424$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.0650850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked 1win47c3,202$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.2416641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team21c3,111$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.781,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked 1win62c3,109$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.1722031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked 1win50c3,062$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.8425752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1101,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed BetBoom Team45c2,990$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.6821155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed 1win58c2,784$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.8551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed 1win54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.7822853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed 1win46c2,654$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.7660349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BetBoom Team30c2,526$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.7969132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked 1win62c2,521$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.3279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 1win39c2,500$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5261,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed 1win63c2,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92520767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed BetBoom Team39c2,492$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98047650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83b…2d16backed 1win70c2,482$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.621838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BetBoom Team41c2,453$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.8193546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked BetBoom Team61c2,452$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.0623561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked 1win76c2,316$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.5312858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked 1win39c2,258$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.9833845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed 1win61c2,203$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.9110453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed 1win69c2,100$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66128044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked 1win45c2,088$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.6848843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed 1win48c2,057$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.3414943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed BetBoom Team64c2,020$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.620642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed 1win64c2,015$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.4350769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed BetBoom Team62c2,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2408958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed 1win45c2,000$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09518830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c07dbacked BetBoom Team37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74012263.1%77 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed 1win41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.9917449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed BetBoom Team55c1,990$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.547646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed 1win74c1,983$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.961020%2 W · 8 L-4.8wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-72.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed BetBoom Team52c1,896$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.115950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed 1win64c1,838$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.2618351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf897…8453backed 1win39c1,831$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.748146.9%38 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked BetBoom Team60c1,800$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08228251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed 1win64c1,773$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.436651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win55c1,742$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.831,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team23c1,688$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.711,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked 1win38c1,680$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.5995342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 1win46c1,630$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.256852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed BetBoom Team31c1,627$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.9237745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed 1win48c1,624$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.488757.5%50 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed 1win47c1,593$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.29580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked 1win63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.319456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c8…a3c2backed 1win64c1,522$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.08944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team37c1,500$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.111,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed 1win42c1,500$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.5136343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed 1win37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked 1win47c1,461$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.371346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2503…bb1cbacked 1win64c1,457$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.361369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team25c1,450$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.971,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed 1win44c1,444$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.4865441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed 1win56c1,433$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.9146664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf770…a856backed 1win70c1,429$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed 1win39c1,400$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85457449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BetBoom Team42c1,355$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.9932549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed 1win38c1,316$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.7814646.6%68 W · 78 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked BetBoom Team28c1,307$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.79339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed BetBoom Team27c1,300$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34718143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed 1win53c1,223$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.414751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed 1win45c1,220$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.3619251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked BetBoom Team34c1,202$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.016744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 1win46c1,200$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.1364744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeef…92b7backed BetBoom Team34c1,200$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40815054.7%82 W · 68 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked 1win42c1,190$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.6612252.5%64 W · 58 L+17.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked BetBoom Team60c1,102$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.6461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.