NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe219765e82b4b1fc4570ef334d86cc7493e8c2f60131387ca5a5638261f7022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Under | 54c | 450.19$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 45c | 326.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.72 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 293.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…1023backed Under | 46c | 273.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…01c4backed Over | 55c | 272.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 38c | 158.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Over | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -16.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Under | 44c | 106.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 83.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 72.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 53.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Under | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…9901backed Under | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 76c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Over | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…90f2backed Over | 58c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 22.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…4374backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…e34bbacked Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…bb4bbacked Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909e…1451backed Over | 55c | 21.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Wizards won
- Bulls vs. WizardsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 248.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 249.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 252.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.