NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 249.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x749bf06c7ccb8b750117f0a3be9e577f2c6a6958c8d72b504950e4dc746d1162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1333…173bbacked Over | 47c | 12,509$5,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,879.23 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 53c | 12,057$6,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,666.81 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 5,993$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.56 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 3,026$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 49c | 2,011$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.16 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Under | 51c | 1,980$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.63 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 50c | 1,963$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.64 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Over | 48c | 1,429$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.91 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.94 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 49c | 1,222$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.64 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 1,042$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.75 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 52c | 471.03$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 185 | 52.4%97 W · 88 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Under | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Under | 52c | 369.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 50c | 304.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.05 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Under | 52c | 280.55$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 53c | 275.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 48c | 255.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Under | 52c | 224.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 213.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 52c | 191.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Under | 50c | 139.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 50c | 135.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 112.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485b…fc40backed Under | 51c | 101.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 90.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…3096backed Over | 48c | 85.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 70.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 51c | 58.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Under | 52c | 58.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 56c | 57.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 57.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Under | 52c | 48.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 53c | 39.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 51c | 38.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…8db8backed Over | 50c | 35.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over | 46c | 35.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3b…fbabbacked Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…07e7backed Under | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 49c | 20.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 249.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Wizards won
- Bulls vs. WizardsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 244.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 246.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 248.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 252.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-11.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bulls (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-6.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-7.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Bulls (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.