Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe96218d12ddba6a5eebe11ed7bbe31eff3448ec38f0f17b532be1bbf2c1fdcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 3c | 539.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 44c | 270.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 235.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 227.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 128.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 49c | 115.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 115.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 102.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 101.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 98.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 92.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 92.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 92.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 51c | 89.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 76.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 72.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 72.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 47c | 71.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 52c | 64.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 62.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 48c | 56.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked Yes | 47c | 56.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 55.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 52.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 61c | 40.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 38.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 48c | 37.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 36.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 35.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 33.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…af67backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 45c | 31.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 23.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 21.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f87bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.