Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e829a8abcc55a7839d5b476a768d4ed90482acb65ad4a027cedaa5843f05b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 479.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.04 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 57c | 279.96$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 277.55$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 236.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 234.57$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 221.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 179.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 179.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 163.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 159.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 128.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 128.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 47c | 126.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 57c | 100.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 93.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 56c | 79.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 46c | 76.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 41c | 74.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…ee1abacked Yes | 40c | 68.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 65.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 54.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 31c | 53.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 49.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked No | 61c | 46.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 55c | 42.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 40.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 38.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked No | 61c | 34.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 32.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 50c | 31.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 27.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 27.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed Yes | 45c | 26.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 42c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 43c | 24.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 45c | 24.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 46c | 24.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.