Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef299aa061078be77b714db7e8bdd92bef770c8d8112b8fac4449c966165457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 206.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 191.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 190.81$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 185.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 180.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 174.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 161.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 161.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 161$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 150.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 148.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 39c | 142.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 140.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 137.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 135.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 16c | 134.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 129.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 123.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 41c | 122.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 113.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 51c | 96.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 53c | 92.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 87.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 82.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 39c | 80.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 79.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 77.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 72.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 52c | 71.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 56c | 67.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 63.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 60.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 60.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 59.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 54.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 53.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 62c | 49.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 51c | 48.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 47.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 46.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 45.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 57c | 42.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 27c | 42.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 41.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 41.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 38.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…99a2backed No | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 40c | 32.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 62c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 54c | 28.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 27.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 25.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 24.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 63c | 19.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 59c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…529dbacked Yes | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 61c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.