Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157f8d7406d38c0ddacfcc90599ffd7efb264b401398c297f769b2265e5da74b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 2,679$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.01 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…1075backed Yes | 39c | 1,535$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 767.66$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 731.54$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 556.84$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 12c | 414.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 411.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 63c | 267$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 22c | 265.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 260.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 252.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 232$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 227.94$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 226.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 6c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 216.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 207.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 200.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 199.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 196.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 60c | 195.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 173.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 38c | 173.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 168$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 163.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 156$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 152.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 149$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 38c | 144.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 141.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 140.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 36c | 139.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 138.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 131.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 122.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 117.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 116.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 63c | 113$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 112.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 42c | 110.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 109.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 96.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 82.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 63c | 77.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 72.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 69.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 40c | 69.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 48c | 68.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 65.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…59c5backed No | 60c | 61.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 60c | 60.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 54c | 60.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 57.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 57.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 41c | 56.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 73c | 53.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 45c | 51.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 55c | 50.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 46.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 66c | 44.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 33c | 43.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 41.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 71c | 39.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 66c | 36.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 36.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 28c | 35.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 67c | 34.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 47c | 34.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 33.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 33.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.