Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Stepanivka by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef36d9d6ea49378ee1530a79a190b00bf34cfb7e8ce7ecd6c21bc814dbe1047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 37c | 4,750$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.45 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 27c | 3,488$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.05 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 49c | 2,027$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.99 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 21c | 1,456$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.53 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 58c | 1,440$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.89 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 52c | 1,135$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 43c | 1,050$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.15 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 47c | 1,028$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.16 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 57c | 1,020$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 980.17$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.88 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 31c | 965.71$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.26 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 73c | 945.38$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.35 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 64c | 916.88$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.51 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 52c | 700$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 62c | 697.21$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.54 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed No | 70c | 669.93$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 60c | 664.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 40c | 558.59$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.29 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 38c | 449.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 39c | 431.72$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 38c | 409.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 405.67$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.15 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 11c | 383.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 35c | 368.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.37 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 58c | 342.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked Yes | 53c | 341.27$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 59c | 339.44$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…d930backed No | 62c | 307.75$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked No | 70c | 300$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 54c | 299.98$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 59c | 298.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 60c | 295.67$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 14c | 274.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 56c | 267.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 40c | 251.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…5e02backed Yes | 64c | 249.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74a9…bc7bbacked No | 47c | 243$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…2decbacked No | 52c | 230.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 73c | 213.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 35c | 194.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 76c | 192.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…c32abacked No | 26c | 192.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 44c | 190$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 64c | 189$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 54c | 183.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 73c | 155.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 50c | 152.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 64c | 150.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…336cbacked No | 36c | 140.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 66c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 79c | 126.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 18c | 121.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 63c | 110.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d61…fba4backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 109.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…1c77backed No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 48c | 101.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed No | 39c | 101.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 50c | 95.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…ff92backed Yes | 64c | 89.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…0bfcbacked No | 45c | 80.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 55c | 74.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 43c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 54c | 59.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 47c | 57.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a65…84d5backed No | 35c | 56.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…99dabacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 53cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…942dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…566cbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…30abbacked No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 74c | 33.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…14b0backed Yes | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a2…2614backed Yes | 58c | 29.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…260abacked No | 63c | 26.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…675fbacked No | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…300cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…a80fbacked Yes | 44c | 24.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a0…436bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 64c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…8c9bbacked Yes | 63c | 21.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 20.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.