TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Stepanivka by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fce…33f8backed Yes37c4,750$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.451822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes27c3,488$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.0513230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No49c2,027$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.993560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes21c1,456$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.536913%9 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No58c1,440$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.8911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7540…0d08backed Yes52c1,135$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.32634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes43c1,050$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.1515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed No47c1,028$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.164725.5%12 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Yes57c1,020$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.82142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes3c999.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes53c980.17$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.8825528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes31c965.71$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.265438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No73c945.38$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3514456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf853…21d0backed No64c916.88$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.512661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x723a…d86dbacked Yes52c700$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick22cpaid+11%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No62c697.21$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.548355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed No70c669.93$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.731080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked No60c664.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.341844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No40c558.59$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.299360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes38c449.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.313429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+36.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes39c431.72$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes38c409.98$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2713622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes47c405.67$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes11c383.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.433517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No35c368.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.3712830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813a…acb1backed Yes58c342.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8572…63ccbacked Yes53c341.27$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.461752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No59c339.44$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.573161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff0…d930backed No62c307.75$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked No70c300$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No54c299.98$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9914150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No59c298.58$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.586650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes60c295.67$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes14c274.84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.236028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes56c267.3$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed No40c251.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.671384.6%11 W · 2 L+5.1wins+0.39per pick45cpaid+89.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x429a…77fbbacked No38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1554052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0386…5e02backed Yes64c249.19$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16080%0 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x74a9…bc7bbacked No47c243$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd12d…2decbacked No52c230.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.33650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf5…e387backed Yes54c220$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.860%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No73c213.33$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.582378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcde0…267dbacked No47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.773342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No35c194.74$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.629962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x43cc…9211backed No76c192.77$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.943366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x679c…c32abacked No26c192.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.793100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+161.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No44c190$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.43756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No64c189$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.047949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes54c183.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No73c155.3$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.939475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No50c152.32$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.976159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8d9…d32abacked No64c150.05$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.021172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c10…336cbacked No36c140.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No66c130$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.846656.1%37 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd576…ca8dbacked No79c126.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.332766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed Yes18c121.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes63c110.48$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.195479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes52c110$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.154358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d61…fba4backed Yes36c110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c109.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.635327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa909…1c77backed No38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.261050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No48c101.89$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.893565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e17…2b55backed No39c101.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dda…649cbacked Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434628.3%13 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Yes50c95.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.785461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e3d…ff92backed Yes64c89.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…0bfcbacked No45c80.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-25.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No55c74.84$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6814920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4391…61d8backed Yes42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes43c64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.342128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.84037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes54c59.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1414355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No47c57.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a65…84d5backed No35c56.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.39683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+72.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.56051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aec…99dabacked Yes73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick53cpaid-72.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc382…942dbacked Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fc…566cbacked No49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.82475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264010%4 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-50.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c13…30abbacked No41c36.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.592441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes74c33.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick70cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1375…14b0backed Yes64c31.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.27727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16a2…2614backed Yes58c29.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48fe…260abacked No63c26.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478a…675fbacked No50c26.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e8f…300cbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fb…a80fbacked Yes44c24.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51a0…436bbacked Yes64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07fd…ad26backed No64c22.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.994872.9%35 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd822…8c9bbacked Yes63c21.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+41.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes63c20.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.052722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.