TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Warriors, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,044,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,023,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,044,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Kings50c1,050,971$520,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530,073.3610049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Warriors51c487,055$248,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248,317.5120545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Warriors50c379,968$190,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190,827.5666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Warriors52c293,861$152,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,127.2187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Kings48c195,666$94,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,939.421,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Kings50c161,347$80,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,164.296043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Warriors51c114,624$58,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,230.1711457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Warriors49c95,000$46,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,55024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Warriors52c32,997$17,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,062.6837355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Warriors52c28,165$14,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,645.720744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Kings51c26,900$13,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,168.5432653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Warriors50c25,173$12,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,691.2610860.2%65 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Kings51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,80049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kings49c19,307$9,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,939.832,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Warriors49c17,284$8,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,500.51,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Warriors52c12,759$6,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,634.861,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Warriors50c11,917$5,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.661,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Kings48c11,555$5,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,008.61833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Kings52c11,000$5,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.9458449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings46c9,999$4,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,356.125,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Kings48c9,083$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,722.926648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors50c8,799$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,410.394,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Kings48c8,158$3,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,242.1628643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Warriors51c7,845$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.11,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Warriors51c7,559$3,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,883.642348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Warriors48c7,344$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,525.2432540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors48c6,640$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings53c6,338$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,006.182,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Warriors50c6,005$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.512450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e1e…1a2cbacked Warriors38c5,553$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Warriors50c4,850$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42537539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Warriors52c4,708$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.1412257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Kings50c4,149$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.0770246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Warriors51c4,105$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.3837747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Kings49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04030446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Warriors52c3,964$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.122349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Kings49c3,940$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.2958953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Warriors49c2,848$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.533,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Warriors50c2,801$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.785,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Warriors48c2,516$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.892,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Kings52c2,304$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.331,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Warriors51c2,080$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.824151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Kings49c2,076$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.5463746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Kings48c2,018$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.538647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Kings47c2,018$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.6714940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Warriors50c1,959$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.79952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Kings50c1,955$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.411,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Warriors50c1,949$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.6846145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Kings49c1,939$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.7962948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Kings48c1,875$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9752,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kings49c1,816$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.821,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Kings52c1,750$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84020945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Kings47c1,677$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.948154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Kings48c1,484$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.8948054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Warriors4c1,383$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.492,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Kings48c1,229$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.611,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Warriors51c1,104$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.9512548%60 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Warriors52c1,009$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.427153.5%38 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Warriors52c1,006$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.141,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Kings49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51041649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e1…a9cfbacked Kings51c999.31$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Kings49c997.51$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.7331643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Kings50c961.68$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.5559250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Kings47c955.61$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.4818444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Warriors53c913.74$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.371952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Warriors52c878.51$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.8271654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Warriors52c867.69$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.229849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Kings49c866.19$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.7612240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Warriors51c854.52$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.4511145%50 W · 61 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Kings48c839.55$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.2760444.2%267 W · 337 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Warriors48c830$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.41,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Kings49c797.65$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.7441753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Kings49c775.52$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.5211451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Kings50c774.78$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.7625657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8785…df3fbacked Warriors25c668.89$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.56650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Kings48c631.86$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.5711033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bdf…4c8fbacked Warriors41c607.15$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.061241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Warriors50c591.79$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.819345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Kings50c588.31$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.1512752.8%67 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Warriors50c573.04$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.6568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x818d…1f37backed Warriors51c567.02$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdef1…c0debacked Warriors49c557$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.936852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25fc…ef05backed Warriors53c554.15$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Warriors48c544.48$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.351,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Warriors51c534.48$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5824247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Warriors55c529.95$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9217051.8%88 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b8…b4d4backed Warriors56c522.53$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.065054%27 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Warriors50c498.91$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.61,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Kings49c494.59$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.2456447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Warriors50c492.19$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.212934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Kings49c475.27$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.3744551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Kings49c460.99$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1116845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Warriors50c436.5$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2565349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Kings49c409.31$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7542352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Kings47c405.53$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9320352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Kings48c401.76$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9748132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Warriors50c391.88$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.861,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Warriors51c391.18$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.515240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Warriors50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1946266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.