TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Warriors, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$313,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Kings51c120,133$61,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,699.451,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Warriors49c109,891$53,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,616.6887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Kings53c43,946$23,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,731.6232653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Warriors48c40,625$19,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,372.2311457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kings51c24,634$12,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,070.0166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings53c8,890$4,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,155.274,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Warriors46c7,848$3,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,623.111,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors46c6,627$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,075.694,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Kings51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Warriors48c5,718$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.3812257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Kings53c5,500$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5851,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Kings53c5,500$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585427.1%3 W · 39 L-8.1wins-0.19per pick26cpaid-86.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Warriors45c5,372$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.47653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Warriors48c4,800$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3048350.6%42 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kings53c4,655$2,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.551,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Kings54c3,265$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.3987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Warriors48c3,249$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.731,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Warriors47c3,025$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.8290650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Warriors47c3,017$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.8429849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings52c2,993$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.095,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Warriors47c2,963$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.321,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Warriors48c2,522$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.8522349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Kings53c2,310$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.6922948.5%111 W · 118 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Warriors49c2,207$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.9371654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Warriors46c2,103$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.628838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings52c2,091$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.169,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Kings54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked Kings54c1,918$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.513627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Kings55c1,811$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.531,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings54c1,592$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.952,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Warriors45c1,556$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Warriors46c1,549$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.3871547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Warriors46c1,548$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.157248.6%35 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors35c1,510$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.948,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7208…66fdbacked Warriors45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Warriors48c1,354$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.972846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Kings53c1,229$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.6981349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Warriors48c1,212$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.7659250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Warriors48c1,149$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.5358953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Warriors48c1,147$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.071,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kings53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a0…a974backed Warriors48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-79.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Warriors47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4703040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Warriors47c999.93$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9715219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Kings57c998.43$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.141,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Kings53c922.89$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.5958450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Warriors45c919.96$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9816743.7%73 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Warriors48c871.52$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.8341753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Warriors48c866.25$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.810252.9%54 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Kings52c677.42$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.431,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Warriors46c677.32$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.5754246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Warriors48c672.09$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.4112752.8%67 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Warriors24c649.72$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9921848.2%105 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Warriors46c619.44$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1334953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Kings50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Kings52c595.38$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.213,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Kings52c564.36$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.8949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Kings53c550$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.556043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Kings55c532.27$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.5258449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Kings54c524.91$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.4692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Kings57c513.08$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8213547.4%64 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Warriors45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22533150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Warriors46c489.39$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.572934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Warriors48c467.86$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0722047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Warriors44c465.25$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.719845.9%45 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Warriors48c457.15$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.917153.5%38 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Kings56c434.64$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2419258.3%112 W · 80 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Warriors47c428.18$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.229345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Warriors10c421.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.181,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25fc…ef05backed Warriors48c403.65$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Warriors49c395.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.886046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Warriors50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19418643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Warriors50c388$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19476250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Kings52c382.58$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.031,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Warriors48c371$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3242352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf060…b07abacked Warriors49c357.03$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.487231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Kings54c341$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8656843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Warriors48c335.2$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.452,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Kings54c333.25$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.6920240.1%81 W · 121 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Kings54c328.79$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.291,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0da…b072backed Kings55c326.25$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.811241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Warriors47c312.55$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.325,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…da42backed Kings53c310.98$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.761931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Warriors47c307.66$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.616242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Warriors46c306.35$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.391,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Warriors48c306.3$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0311145%50 W · 61 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Kings52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14444345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Warriors47c299.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.791,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Warriors10c298.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.892,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…6736backed Kings54c297.12$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.683842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec60…8ad8backed Kings50c286.77$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.656947.8%33 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16e1…d17abacked Kings51c285.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.882544%11 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Kings52c278.3$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9411033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kings53c277$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.192,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Kings52c274.79$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.918648.9%91 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Warriors48c268.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6661151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Warriors48c266.04$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.235052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Warriors47c265.93$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1856447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Kings55c247.67$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4536248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Kings54c243.1$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8348751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.