NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0fb7bb3d65c56a862c25ab56f09fc9dc8f6e804f9efbc1f34ab516c2dc2a65f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 9,822$4,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.53 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 6,375$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Over | 47c | 4,681$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,215.18 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…0d11backed Under | 52c | 2,112$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.93 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…ea3cbacked Under | 52c | 1,868$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.49 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 1,121$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,041$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.27 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 10c | 1,031$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 76c | 517.28$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 513.68$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 16c | 477$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 377.8$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.34 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 12c | 371.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…d17abacked Over | 47c | 296.64$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Under | 53c | 291.54$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 15c | 286$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 11c | 279.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Over | 17c | 263.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 7c | 222.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 211.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 196.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 54c | 169.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 137.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Under | 54c | 135.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over | 17c | 133$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 131.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 118.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 52c | 112.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…3635backed Under | 59c | 104.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 54c | 86.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 202 | 40.1%81 W · 121 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Over | 48c | 70.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 51c | 62.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Over | 27c | 62.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 25c | 50.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 53c | 49.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…8ac3backed Under | 57c | 49.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 73c | 47.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…4adabacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 47c | 39.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Under | 54c | 38.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 79c | 30.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f3…c9d2backed Under | 77c | 28.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 25.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…2b45backed Under | 79c | 24.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32aa…9f80backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe711…3dd2backed Under | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…fd6ebacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…74d8backed Under | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 52c | 20.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 70c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…3c33backed Under | 52c | 19.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 3.5No won
- Kings vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Kings vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Kings won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Kings won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Kings won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 23.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.