TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Cricket · resolved market

T20 Lanka Premier League: Dambulla Sixers vs Kandy Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kandy Royalsof Dambulla Sixers, Kandy Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Cricket
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0646…ad17backed Dambulla Sixers1c12,912$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.332415.7%51 W · 273 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037a…1202backed Kandy Royals51c3,180$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.427146.5%33 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Kandy Royals53c3,100$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,46610763.6%68 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa461…ab70backed Dambulla Sixers37c2,638$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.459034.4%31 W · 59 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Dambulla Sixers38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9508652.3%45 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Kandy Royals56c2,410$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.0315935.2%56 W · 103 L-11.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5986…73dcbacked Kandy Royals59c1,795$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.69860.2%59 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6cd…d3b2backed Dambulla Sixers41c1,250$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.2117535.4%62 W · 113 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kandy Royals44c1,173$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.7556937.1%211 W · 358 L-2.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9065…3275backed Kandy Royals62c1,014$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.4312759.1%75 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Dambulla Sixers9c948.94$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2226130.7%80 W · 181 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Kandy Royals67c916.54$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.5943840.9%179 W · 259 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kandy Royals57c755.43$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.025655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kandy Royals69c686.04$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.3850547.5%240 W · 265 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…d25cbacked Kandy Royals45c576.76$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.322748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Dambulla Sixers56c575.72$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3345647.6%217 W · 239 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7090…a5ffbacked Kandy Royals39c553.85$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8521439.7%85 W · 129 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e12…d0ecbacked Dambulla Sixers3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513418.7%25 W · 109 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+106.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c7…b914backed Dambulla Sixers51c489.29$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.527356.2%41 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Dambulla Sixers55c459.24$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6449247.2%232 W · 260 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52c1…d61fbacked Dambulla Sixers59c455.77$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2706947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Dambulla Sixers43c425.83$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2422036.4%80 W · 140 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-37.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3627…09f2backed Kandy Royals43c420.78$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.785935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Kandy Royals54c417.96$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1347061.5%289 W · 181 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Dambulla Sixers55c402.57$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4564143.1%276 W · 365 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97d1…7d7dbacked Kandy Royals53c389.72$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2332846.3%152 W · 176 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Kandy Royals56c388.91$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.776351.6%394 W · 369 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Dambulla Sixers41c366.07$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.387436.5%27 W · 47 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Kandy Royals58c357.82$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9431940.1%128 W · 191 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b2…5047backed Dambulla Sixers34c352.94$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013641.2%56 W · 80 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06b3…1fd0backed Kandy Royals61c321.47$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.034965.3%32 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e6e…445abacked Dambulla Sixers56c301.95$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Dambulla Sixers46c299.73$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.482931%9 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Kandy Royals51c287.92$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8727141.3%112 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5b…ba31backed Kandy Royals40c270.13$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3517641.5%73 W · 103 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11eb…50cbbacked Kandy Royals61c256.51$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.374052.5%21 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8806…d9f1backed Dambulla Sixers38c249.71$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.897719.5%15 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-31%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x90cc…8020backed Dambulla Sixers36c238.3$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.62213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x28fa…7190backed Kandy Royals44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Kandy Royals64c206.08$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5219862.6%124 W · 74 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ff…12cbbacked Dambulla Sixers40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1599…a8b6backed Dambulla Sixers49c180.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1232337.2%120 W · 203 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x678b…1762backed Kandy Royals57c169.71$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.533145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9958…b9acbacked Kandy Royals59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4911659.5%69 W · 47 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4912…b45fbacked Dambulla Sixers38c163$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0113132.1%42 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d30…ce29backed Kandy Royals72c160.32$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8920363.5%129 W · 74 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b4…efaebacked Dambulla Sixers63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6f…1c42backed Dambulla Sixers26c153.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.2%7 W · 106 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe387…1eedbacked Dambulla Sixers44c150$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f3…03dcbacked Dambulla Sixers36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Dambulla Sixers31c133.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5427029.6%80 W · 190 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Kandy Royals44c130.7$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2667931.4%213 W · 466 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2433…99aebacked Dambulla Sixers36c115.28$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.514527.6%40 W · 105 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8a…718dbacked Kandy Royals65c114.48$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab6…a485backed Dambulla Sixers29c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.45332.1%17 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…f8eabacked Kandy Royals56c106.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f7…b0f4backed Kandy Royals43c105$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.18837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5817…987dbacked Dambulla Sixers48c101.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4917943.6%78 W · 101 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Kandy Royals53c100.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2815550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe7…0c14backed Dambulla Sixers51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0be…8d08backed Dambulla Sixers39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.319958.8%117 W · 82 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Kandy Royals53c99.75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7519950.8%101 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Kandy Royals54c99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4624940.6%101 W · 148 L-15.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58a9…0214backed Dambulla Sixers56c98.2$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.698456%47 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Kandy Royals44c91.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.021050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x935e…d6e4backed Kandy Royals64c91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.763250%16 W · 16 L-6.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x677e…5072backed Dambulla Sixers60c83.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019956.3%112 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1a…0e6fbacked Kandy Royals64c83.78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.161050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f4…6739backed Kandy Royals64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b23…7193backed Kandy Royals48c72.05$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.634953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Kandy Royals49c71.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.311172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+43.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07ab…693cbacked Dambulla Sixers41c70.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Kandy Royals57c68.92$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.62857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Dambulla Sixers50c66.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9825848.4%125 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7f…81d8backed Dambulla Sixers49c65.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4d…066dbacked Dambulla Sixers39c64.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522647.3%107 W · 119 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf212…df61backed Dambulla Sixers47c63.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31bf…0082backed Dambulla Sixers30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.328830.2%87 W · 201 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa162…69b1backed Kandy Royals55c59.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82d…eb9dbacked Kandy Royals73c55.51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.992055%11 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf7…8279backed Dambulla Sixers43c54.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x443b…dcb3backed Kandy Royals72c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa443…1826backed Dambulla Sixers36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5778…86c0backed Dambulla Sixers54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa831…b3eebacked Dambulla Sixers42c49.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.74660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf768…7831backed Kandy Royals63c47.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.461877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Dambulla Sixers55c46.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3420037%74 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Kandy Royals46c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.337848.1%182 W · 196 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Kandy Royals44c42.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2b…ccedbacked Dambulla Sixers35c42.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510028%28 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd02…889fbacked Kandy Royals62c42.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.09683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+48.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb1…b497backed Dambulla Sixers50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c79…78b1backed Kandy Royals48c39.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.442347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed Dambulla Sixers52c38.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce2…d48cbacked Kandy Royals50c36.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0418745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e3…12cabacked Kandy Royals80c34.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.137100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+56.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4b7…6008backed Dambulla Sixers50c34.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2433340.2%134 W · 199 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x126e…3b09backed Dambulla Sixers36c33.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.283330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3b…869abacked Dambulla Sixers52c33.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.498451.2%43 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd419…5969backed Kandy Royals44c32.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.421233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.