Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfaff48d1f8d343b96b5c185fcd1209656d2fa1edbf9c53d761809a02f423f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,431$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,522$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 941.12$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.99 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 80c | 776.15$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 619.75$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.07 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 19c | 610.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 5c | 607.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 599.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 416.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 250.81$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 247.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 43c | 242.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 38c | 210.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 58c | 201.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 190.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 188$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 181.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 175.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 35c | 173.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 172.33$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed No | 61c | 163.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 43c | 160.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 159$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 12c | 142.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 137.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 131.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 110.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 108.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 69c | 106.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 40c | 99.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 14c | 98.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 97.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 97.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 13c | 86.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked No | 60c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…4bc0backed Yes | 37c | 74.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…75c7backed Yes | 44c | 70.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed Yes | 45c | 66.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 66.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 39c | 64.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…89cebacked Yes | 41c | 64.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c57…a16abacked Yes | 19c | 62.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 60.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 58c | 59.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 28c | 58.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 32c | 57.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 52.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 45c | 43.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 61c | 40.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…28afbacked Yes | 42c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 29c | 34.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 42c | 34.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 62c | 33.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…1eebbacked No | 61c | 32.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 30.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4f…5aa2backed No | 61c | 27.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…dba2backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…d72fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 61c | 24.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…772ebacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 62c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…7b04backed No | 62c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.