Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa75233c92e0299efa5e8633bea7fc02f77a7ba9d1400ed6f6167ff56d2d0395f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,407$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 10c | 1,191$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 1,160$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 73c | 882.17$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 41c | 817.24$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.53 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 60c | 685.43$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.94 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 682.56$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.56 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 650$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.25 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 69c | 620.27$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 66c | 489.22$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.04 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 25c | 471.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 471.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 75c | 427.76$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 35c | 420.71$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 359.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 51c | 341.08$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 55c | 328.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.68 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 322.5$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 320.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 295.31$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 35c | 289.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 273.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 258.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 256.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 242.41$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 71c | 236.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 59c | 236.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 233.49$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 232.17$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 217.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 52c | 193.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 63c | 175.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 48c | 154.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 56c | 152.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 50c | 140.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 42c | 139.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 133.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 73c | 129.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 119.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 115.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…9d98backed Yes | 59c | 110.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 39c | 109.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 52c | 102.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 66c | 98.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 95.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 94.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 71c | 91.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 89.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 74c | 88.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 54c | 87.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 74c | 85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 56c | 84.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 34c | 83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 68c | 82.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…058dbacked No | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked No | 59c | 75.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 21c | 72.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…2f6cbacked Yes | 35c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 65.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…8dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 63.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 59.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 58.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 32c | 57.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…34d6backed Yes | 35c | 57.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 38c | 53.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 41c | 49.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 49.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 49c | 48.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 60c | 47.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 36c | 46.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…de73backed No | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 62c | 43.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…5671backed No | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 45c | 42.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 42.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…2f5cbacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 36c | 41.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.