Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0878618b9c46726abebc07da56a7af278ce9d3b6c3c873249ae0f02ce8e40497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 43,503$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 1c | 19,746$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,253$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 4,088$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.86 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 15c | 3,487$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.18 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 31c | 1,737$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.68 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 1,034$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 2c | 729.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 702.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 24c | 505.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 500$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 52c | 496.59$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.13 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 69c | 467.65$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 30c | 408.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 401.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 365.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 322.5$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 311.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 34c | 303.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 295.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 9c | 283.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 36c | 280.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 279.73$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 268.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 76c | 261.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 256.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 31c | 229.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 210.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 181.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 181.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 34c | 170.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 13c | 151.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 146.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 69c | 143.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 139.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…88e0backed Yes | 22c | 136.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…e9d8backed No | 63c | 121.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 75c | 108.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 104.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3a…d3c4backed Yes | 29c | 102.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 101.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 79c | 100.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 15c | 98.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 91.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 23c | 91.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 87.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 31c | 82.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…78f2backed No | 68c | 73.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 73.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…12d3backed No | 80c | 72.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 65c | 71.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 63c | 70.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 14c | 69.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 30c | 65.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 41c | 64.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 39c | 61.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…73eebacked No | 73c | 58.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 58.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 56.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 63c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 78c | 51.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 27c | 47.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9f3fbacked No | 67c | 41.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 39.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 66c | 37.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed No | 71c | 36.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed No | 61c | 34.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 72c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 27.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 75c | 26.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…1b73backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 69c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 74c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.