TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Arthur Fils

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Fils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$389,585
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$476,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,585 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5877…d894backed Fils38c105,923$40,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,001.5312533.6%42 W · 83 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Auger-Aliassime62c78,523$48,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,838.8511242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Fils37c43,037$15,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,923.7910541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Auger-Aliassime63c39,665$24,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,675.566552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eae…5095backed Auger-Aliassime64c16,912$10,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,142.411030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Fils37c14,314$5,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,276.576140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Auger-Aliassime66c12,216$8,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,122.1448851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Auger-Aliassime63c12,203$7,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,496.4894355.7%525 W · 418 L+22.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Fils36c11,409$4,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,159.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Auger-Aliassime67c7,593$5,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,505.7311053.6%59 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Fils35c5,821$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.015228.8%15 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Fils18c5,772$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.552,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Fils37c5,658$2,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.625428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Auger-Aliassime63c5,446$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.1714250.7%72 W · 70 L-14.6wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-21%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Auger-Aliassime63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8505453.7%29 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Auger-Aliassime65c3,427$2,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.353647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Auger-Aliassime63c3,261$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.421442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Auger-Aliassime64c3,140$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.9913260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Fils34c3,075$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.7280938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Auger-Aliassime63c3,026$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.246033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Auger-Aliassime66c3,017$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.425362.3%33 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Fils37c2,998$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10035247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fils14c2,951$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.612,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Fils37c2,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843c…126cbacked Auger-Aliassime63c2,614$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.221662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Auger-Aliassime63c2,200$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.9957649.5%285 W · 291 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Fils4c2,149$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0312313.8%17 W · 106 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2575…bf1ebacked Fils33c2,061$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6802634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Fils34c2,058$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.717,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Auger-Aliassime67c2,015$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.3967249.6%333 W · 339 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Fils35c1,826$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.552,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Auger-Aliassime65c1,725$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.4362061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Auger-Aliassime64c1,627$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.4520653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3302…5397backed Auger-Aliassime63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.34158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fils30c1,571$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.937,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Auger-Aliassime65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.468053.8%43 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Fils35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52511045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Fils37c1,436$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.451,02933.5%345 W · 684 L-3.7wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Fils37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005036%18 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Fils38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50038739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Fils36c1,260$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.547552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Fils37c1,111$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0731753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e1e…b911backed Auger-Aliassime64c1,035$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.595354.7%29 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Auger-Aliassime65c1,010$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.565157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ada…36cfbacked Fils35c999.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.992030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+86.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Auger-Aliassime62c999.94$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.9852844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Auger-Aliassime64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.510339.8%41 W · 62 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x279b…2365backed Fils37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007237.5%27 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Auger-Aliassime64c787.5$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.550364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Fils37c776.11$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1662545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Auger-Aliassime66c772$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7846553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3798…2e72backed Fils3c770$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick17cpaid+88.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Auger-Aliassime64c753.92$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4163247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Auger-Aliassime67c751.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6319056.3%107 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Auger-Aliassime63c735.99$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3287251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fils25c725.71$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.512,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Fils34c714$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.631,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Fils36c689.81$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.59643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Fils37c675.34$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25055646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Fils22c635.32$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7738652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Auger-Aliassime63c567$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8830131.9%96 W · 205 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8828…c29abacked Fils37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c71…fe82backed Auger-Aliassime62c526.19$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.88560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Auger-Aliassime62c526.01$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8878452.9%415 W · 369 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed Fils38c516.33$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.211637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Fils34c516$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6497046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Fils35c500$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.54,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Auger-Aliassime66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17020257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Fils38c478.52$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18154348.1%261 W · 282 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Auger-Aliassime63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1910756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca5…6d0cbacked Fils34c449$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Fils37c443.35$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0416340.5%66 W · 97 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Fils36c416.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036038.9%140 W · 220 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8e5…9401backed Fils37c405.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503050%15 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad1…2030backed Auger-Aliassime63c379.44$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.391861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Auger-Aliassime64c375.06$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.463754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Auger-Aliassime65c369.4$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2968350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Fils32c362.39$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5934842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Fils36c351.03$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3737339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Auger-Aliassime63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4621454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b7e…7f73backed Auger-Aliassime64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.53056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f06…980bbacked Auger-Aliassime64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.54153.7%22 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Auger-Aliassime68c310.56$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.381,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Fils36c308.95$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2212450.8%63 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39a8…f170backed Auger-Aliassime66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.034438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed Fils37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7b…3a0dbacked Auger-Aliassime63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1111957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1a…db57backed Fils22c295$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.61229.1%2 W · 20 L-6.4wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-79.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf32a…dea9backed Auger-Aliassime64c291.86$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0711454.4%62 W · 52 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Auger-Aliassime62c290.32$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.32540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Auger-Aliassime64c286.46$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1918551.4%95 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Auger-Aliassime63c280.9$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9319466%128 W · 66 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3578…f163backed Auger-Aliassime67c275.54$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9339872.4%288 W · 110 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Auger-Aliassime73c275.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0159965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Fils37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Fils37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7362…f480backed Auger-Aliassime63c264.1$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Fils31c261.22$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.922,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Auger-Aliassime63c251.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2418548.1%89 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Fils18c247.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4435730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.