TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,804
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,804 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c81…fce3backed Arkansas Razorbacks71c17,418$12,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,013.862277.3%17 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Texas Tech Red Raiders32c10,280$3,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,296.131,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Texas Tech Red Raiders28c9,106$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.1855657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Texas Tech Red Raiders70c7,200$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,04011662.1%72 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders29c4,806$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.821,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders57c4,299$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.3533438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c4,010$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.822864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas Razorbacks30c3,905$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,733.842,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas Razorbacks32c3,114$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.62,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Texas Tech Red Raiders64c3,024$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks30c2,387$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.1235452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arkansas Razorbacks36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.9925130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c1,699$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.751,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c1,114$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.091030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Texas Tech Red Raiders54c893.69$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.42,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c884$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.881,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders62c811.55$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005459.3%32 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Texas Tech Red Raiders56c753.1$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.6784147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders64c669.95$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4305942.4%25 W · 34 L-7.3wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb61…8e04backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c664.34$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c617.51$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.932744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c553.59$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.364,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Arkansas Razorbacks41c478.44$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8549746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Arkansas Razorbacks38c410.15$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1410437.5%39 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked Arkansas Razorbacks50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c399.98$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.192,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Texas Tech Red Raiders47c394.43$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9245644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef8…c6b7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders31c308$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.48933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c303$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.635738.6%22 W · 35 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15629444.6%131 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6507…6e4fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders53c294.21$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c293.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7112245.1%55 W · 67 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Texas Tech Red Raiders28c254$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.422,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1045444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders35c193.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2315939%62 W · 97 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders30c187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.211,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Texas Tech Red Raiders55c185$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7557448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders59c178.8$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.891,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c173.75$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.365,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x773b…a9a8backed Texas Tech Red Raiders64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.512254.1%66 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders66c143$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.364742.6%20 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks65c122.36$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.865,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Arkansas Razorbacks31c120.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.163,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders11c110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.653993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c109.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3941554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Arkansas Razorbacks32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6811439.5%45 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557143.7%31 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Arkansas Razorbacks29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7164322.9%147 W · 496 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a0…d7cabacked Arkansas Razorbacks41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.563834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Texas Tech Red Raiders55c96$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.89355.9%52 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6c…a297backed Arkansas Razorbacks31c80$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x706e…b384backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas Tech Red Raiders54c67.39$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.673,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders68c58.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd8…b9f6backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.19771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe77f…e59abacked Texas Tech Red Raiders54c51.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282524%6 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-57.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Arkansas Razorbacks37c48.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.884318.6%8 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb6a…857abacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.554027.5%11 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Texas Tech Red Raiders49c42.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7473549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Texas Tech Red Raiders56c41.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27864.1%50 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd3…c066backed Texas Tech Red Raiders54c38.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed Arkansas Razorbacks31c37.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9117122.8%39 W · 132 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x176a…7c26backed Arkansas Razorbacks44c35.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.671776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick53cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b91…82edbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders56c35.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed68…b870backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c33.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.652045%9 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde8c…e0b0backed Arkansas Razorbacks48c33.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.652045%9 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ad…cc15backed Arkansas Razorbacks31c32.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.262445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa163…18afbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa27…dbdcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d82dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.22857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3c…4679backed Arkansas Razorbacks69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.