TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FaZeof EYEBALLERS, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,600
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$369,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,600 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked EYEBALLERS23c25,000$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.9715245.4%69 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed EYEBALLERS17c20,631$3,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.531,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked EYEBALLERS31c20,369$6,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,400.841040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FaZe76c18,000$13,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.9976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked EYEBALLERS17c10,655$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.2430726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FaZe76c8,544$6,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.6238358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed FaZe77c7,792$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.2133359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked FaZe63c7,655$4,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,832.3532552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FaZe74c6,553$4,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.032,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked FaZe73c5,444$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.331,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked EYEBALLERS26c5,335$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.45,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked EYEBALLERS24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed EYEBALLERS23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc1…c26bbacked FaZe77c2,750$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.53447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed FaZe66c2,500$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.3945058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed EYEBALLERS15c2,463$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3622,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed FaZe68c2,368$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.3612353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked EYEBALLERS18c2,191$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.8452834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2095…873ebacked EYEBALLERS24c2,141$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.85534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed EYEBALLERS24c2,034$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.1635839.4%141 W · 217 L+1.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked FaZe74c2,025$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.434546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed EYEBALLERS24c2,025$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4868246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed EYEBALLERS23c2,024$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010739.3%42 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed EYEBALLERS23c2,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed EYEBALLERS25c1,997$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.37943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed EYEBALLERS27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed EYEBALLERS27c1,809$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.562,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c30…54a2backed EYEBALLERS23c1,800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.13066.7%20 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…438fbacked FaZe76c1,782$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.583161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed EYEBALLERS24c1,756$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.4421854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked EYEBALLERS4c1,705$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8343152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FaZe80c1,583$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.682,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed EYEBALLERS23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed EYEBALLERS27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40515838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb417…d931backed EYEBALLERS27c1,490$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.36446.9%30 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed EYEBALLERS8c1,311$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10931654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FaZe69c1,250$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed EYEBALLERS9c1,121$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed FaZe79c1,111$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4615052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EYEBALLERS30c1,110$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.952,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FaZe77c1,050$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.59158.2%53 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed EYEBALLERS15c1,006$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.146,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EYEBALLERS25c992.99$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2540950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed EYEBALLERS23c975$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.258652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FaZe66c942.09$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.315,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked EYEBALLERS32c935.16$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.521,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed EYEBALLERS21c878.54$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.492,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed EYEBALLERS23c829.97$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.897548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FaZe77c752.36$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.164,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344e…019ebacked EYEBALLERS9c750$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.510014%14 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked EYEBALLERS23c750$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.511650%58 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked EYEBALLERS23c693.33$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16052837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked EYEBALLERS22c684.4$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4916142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FaZe77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.351,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed FaZe62c645.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.8113147.3%62 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked EYEBALLERS25c635.32$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2698052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked EYEBALLERS17c625.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2622729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x174e…8b63backed EYEBALLERS20c600$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.24339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed EYEBALLERS9c571.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6842154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed EYEBALLERS17c502$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6857322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked FaZe64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18019857.6%114 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2d9…2085backed EYEBALLERS4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked EYEBALLERS5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5575.3%3 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed EYEBALLERS23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11553444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef57…827dbacked FaZe80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002548%12 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed FaZe79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10513360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe221…ecf8backed EYEBALLERS9c492.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed FaZe76c491.35$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9210061%61 W · 39 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e28…2ef4backed EYEBALLERS21c475.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005846.6%27 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed EYEBALLERS34c472.61$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0221346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FaZe70c440.07$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.861,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed FaZe62c403.31$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.315048%24 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed EYEBALLERS9c400$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed EYEBALLERS25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed FaZe77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed EYEBALLERS16c391.62$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2213245.5%60 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0010…c3a8backed FaZe77c389.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6131673.7%233 W · 83 L+23.6wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked EYEBALLERS27c386$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8844747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed EYEBALLERS24c380.79$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.391,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed EYEBALLERS5c380$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1927961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed EYEBALLERS16c341.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.696271%44 W · 18 L+12.9wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+38.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed EYEBALLERS26c318$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2218536.2%67 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FaZe74c308$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1699148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed EYEBALLERS21c298.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.951,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95c2…421bbacked FaZe77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.747057.1%40 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b4…7f09backed FaZe77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.741457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked FaZe77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7410457.7%60 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked EYEBALLERS11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.576748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc086…8128backed FaZe77c243.05$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.914748.3%71 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked EYEBALLERS41c241.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008351.8%43 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed FaZe77c230.29$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.974452.3%23 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x022b…35aebacked FaZe68c221.21$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked EYEBALLERS5c220$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141516.6%69 W · 346 L-36.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fc2…9c0dbacked EYEBALLERS15c213.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.812637.3%47 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed EYEBALLERS36c210$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0718943.9%83 W · 106 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebd2…54a3backed EYEBALLERS24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ce…7ecbbacked FaZe71c208$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.382839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FaZe72c198.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.644,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed EYEBALLERS6c192.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129229.3%27 W · 65 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed FaZe77c184.42$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4234848.3%168 W · 180 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.