Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc318bc7c767d8f640b301b922283053acfce90960bfb78264715e1b7e6ce0709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,403$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 966.45$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 41c | 948.86$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.96 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 788.74$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…6871backed Yes | 37c | 678.14$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 508.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 35c | 472.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 256.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 255.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 242.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 30c | 219.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 211.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 72c | 177.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 174.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 167.58$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 155.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 153$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 52c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 56c | 116.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 102.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 96.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 37c | 90.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 88.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 20c | 88.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 36c | 88.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 87.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 84.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 84.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 83.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 82.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 79.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 29c | 75.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 73.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 71.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 35c | 70.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 43c | 69.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 67.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 79c | 64.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 37c | 63.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 34c | 60.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 66c | 59.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 22c | 55.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 26c | 55.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 53.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 52.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 35c | 52.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 52.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 51.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 30c | 50.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 50.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 53c | 48.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 58c | 44.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 35c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 42.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 68c | 42.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 40.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 37c | 39.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 30c | 38.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 42c | 38.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 37.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked No | 60c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…9377backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 65c | 30.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…930ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…e377backed Yes | 42c | 24.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 22.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.