TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 FIDE World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,397
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,397 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd986…1320backed Yes17c8,693$1,493 inLost-$1,492.65232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes17c3,849$668 inLost-$667.78140%0 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes14c662.92$92 inLost-$91.8911631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe95f…1a57backed Yes13c557.98$70 inLost-$69.96119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No80c499.99$397 inWon+$102.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No79c419.83$332 inWon+$88.321040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No71c354.46$250 inWon+$104.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes32c299.99$96 inLost-$961540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes24c236.8$56 inLost-$55.727441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08be…fe90backed No68c220.59$150 inWon+$70.59333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes12c220$26 inLost-$26.21421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1669…9808backed Yes14c220$31 inLost-$30.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…eb4bbacked Yes28c214.29$60 inLost-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Yes15c200$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c199$52 inLost-$51.561757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes25c189.67$47 inLost-$47.34553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes19c188.3$35 inLost-$34.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3771…ba27backed Yes12c175$21 inLost-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes15c164.84$25 inLost-$24.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No80c146.17$116 inWon+$29.912313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f97…a349backed Yes15c134.55$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…549ebacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes17c131.65$22 inLost-$22.382917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes26c114.22$30 inLost-$302213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21b3…1ddfbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ef…fa51backed Yes13c100$13 inLost-$13714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-81.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…5c98backed No79c99.99$79 inWon+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc424…95c9backed Yes15c86.67$13 inLost-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1364…d8a4backed Yes18c77.78$14 inLost-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6388…2f86backed Yes18c73.46$13 inLost-$13.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d6…d617backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb9…9dd7backed No71c46.67$33 inWon+$13.41825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No78c35.29$27 inWon+$7.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No73c35.19$26 inWon+$9.41475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb7…e2dbbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No74c20$15 inWon+$5.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No68c16$11 inWon+$5.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.