Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Koki Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c30355f5a26d109f086c6de8d88f94f42132a615b96cb767ef2d71deb81e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Koki Matsudaof Naoki Nakagawa, Koki Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Koki Matsuda | 53c | 11,450$6,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,429.25 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Naoki Nakagawa | 17c | 8,943$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.15 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 1,698$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…5369backed Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 1,368$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.85 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 994.33$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.62 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Naoki Nakagawa | 41c | 852.74$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.21 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 26c | 812.19$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 805.31$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.69 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naoki Nakagawa | 16c | 667.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Koki Matsuda | 44c | 599.98$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.73 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 455.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Koki Matsuda | 46c | 415$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.1 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 411.69$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.91 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 57c | 385.43$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.26 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 365$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 354.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…c0cfbacked Koki Matsuda | 52c | 343.92$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 55c | 216.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 183.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…645fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 14c | 172.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Koki Matsuda | 75c | 171.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 49c | 169.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Koki Matsuda | 49c | 142.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Koki Matsuda | 44c | 107.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 25c | 95.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Koki Matsuda | 44c | 94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…73fabacked Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Koki Matsuda | 58c | 80.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Naoki Nakagawa | 29c | 76.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Naoki Nakagawa | 55c | 74.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 39c | 71.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Naoki Nakagawa | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…142ebacked Koki Matsuda | 70c | 60.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +8.9wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 58.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Naoki Nakagawa | 43c | 51.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 46.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Naoki Nakagawa | 52c | 46.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Koki Matsuda | 42c | 45.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e97…8504backed Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Koki Matsuda | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 53c | 42.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Naoki Nakagawa | 46c | 41.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 47c | 40.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 27c | 39.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Koki Matsuda | 47c | 38.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Koki Matsuda | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…10ffbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 34.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 30.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Koki Matsuda | 61c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Naoki Nakagawa | 54c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 61c | 21.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Koki Matsuda | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Koki Matsuda | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.