Premier League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d033467f1716512d5cc76d25ce12da62abd7154bc5eeced61677de25322d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 14,499$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 14,211$10,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,274.52 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 33c | 6,361$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.36 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 78c | 2,333$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.26 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 1,335$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 80c | 1,302$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.49 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,215$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.29 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 78c | 966.77$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.16 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 769.23$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 78c | 454.15$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 23c | 440.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 23c | 330$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 64c | 317$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 282$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 80c | 213$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 70c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 80c | 193.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 166.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Over | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c0…c158backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 21c | 116.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 34c | 66.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Over | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…6715backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccbf…b43cbacked Over | 77c | 37.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 78c | 35.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd0…6f8cbacked Over | 77c | 33.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 71c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Over | 80c | 26.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 69c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 79c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Over | 68c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.