Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc564f57981c89ca2823a248369f562f429835e2c8ed7c66a1a5b075231d4682d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 35c | 487.55$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 446.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 307.53$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 279$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 252.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 240.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 223.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 199$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 190.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 175.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 156.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 121$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 120.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 108.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 100.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 92.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 19c | 84.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 77.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 67.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 40c | 58.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 51.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…ecc0backed Yes | 43c | 40.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 40.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 40c | 38.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 42c | 37.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 37.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 58c | 35.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 34.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 58c | 34.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 33.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 32.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 31.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 29.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 69c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 78c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.