NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a6c0ec34d087812d185bf085ded85d88bf297408598ff12ab96e68466f8eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Islanders, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 217,768$143,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143,049.21 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Islanders | 34c | 147,167$50,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,130.16 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Islanders | 35c | 41,551$14,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,008.43 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ce60backed Islanders | 35c | 21,026$7,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,666.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Islanders | 35c | 2,222$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.3 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Islanders | 34c | 2,078$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.85 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Islanders | 35c | 2,002$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.3 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…e970backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…b2e3backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 970$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 851.67$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.59 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…fffbbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 800$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Islanders | 35c | 646.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.24 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Islanders | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 531.14$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.93 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Islanders | 33c | 439$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Islanders | 36c | 346.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.73 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Islanders | 34c | 342.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Islanders | 55c | 310$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 305$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.25 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 249.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb298…ef07backed Islanders | 36c | 208.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Islanders | 36c | 208.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 174.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Islanders | 35c | 156$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Islanders | 34c | 147.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Islanders | 35c | 142$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Islanders | 61c | 141.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 119.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Islanders | 35c | 114$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 105.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 103.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 100.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Maple Leafs | 50c | 92.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Islanders | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Islanders | 33c | 85.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Islanders | 35c | 83.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 34c | 78.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Islanders | 36c | 76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 69.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 53.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 294 | 48.6%143 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Islanders | 63c | 49.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…4c28backed Islanders | 36c | 44.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…1f5ebacked Islanders | 36c | 42.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 41.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 38.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 35.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Islanders | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 32.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maple Leafs | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Islanders | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked Islanders | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Islanders | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 23.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…4504backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 21.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…71c2backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Islanders | 73c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 15.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. Maple LeafsIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.