Movies · resolved market
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7551cf7f6f72f6b51ef9277761cfd8dd085c22ab45a84bc9ec7ea8bcdcac5db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 5c | 16,078$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,269.24 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 34c | 4,863$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,204.15 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 6c | 4,100$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 11c | 3,971$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.13 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,477$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,479$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed Yes | 45c | 1,114$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 7c | 1,046$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.17 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes | 3c | 976.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 4c | 854.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.1 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 712$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.76 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…d958backed Yes | 3c | 694.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 5c | 669.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.81 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 4c | 554.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 6c | 538.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.6 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 493$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 8c | 453.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 3c | 451.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 25c | 439.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed Yes | 6c | 378.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Yes | 11c | 375$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d40…4028backed No | 9c | 369.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac73…24b9backed Yes | 6c | 347.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 5c | 317.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 282.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 9c | 272.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.07 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 253.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 7c | 237.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +161%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 18c | 228.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 222.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…eaa2backed Yes | 6c | 195.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…d704backed Yes | 7c | 172.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 71c | 148.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…1c72backed Yes | 16c | 115.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…5dc1backed Yes | 37c | 112.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…6d94backed No | 16c | 70.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +512%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 42.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Yes | 65c | 15.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Flunked" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Hulk Hogan: Real American" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Raw: 2026 - April 20, 2026" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Tales From '85" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.