Tennis · resolved market
Tampere: Sumit Nagal vs Andrej Nedic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89504399f4fb65a23ffefedde63a2401d669537e07feef5686e11f486cc4301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andrej Nedicof Sumit Nagal, Andrej Nedic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sumit Nagal | 40c | 16,815$6,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,754.06 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Andrej Nedic | 58c | 13,662$7,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,741.92 | 717 | 29.8%214 W · 503 L | -39.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…08dfbacked Andrej Nedic | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.99 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…dbd6backed Sumit Nagal | 45c | 2,109$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.05 | 332 | 56%186 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Andrej Nedic | 55c | 1,805$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.6 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Sumit Nagal | 34c | 1,670$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.98 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…4633backed Andrej Nedic | 70c | 1,419$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Sumit Nagal | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 370 | 44.3%164 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Andrej Nedic | 69c | 1,079$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.57 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sumit Nagal | 42c | 949.73$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.89 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…6e6fbacked Andrej Nedic | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Sumit Nagal | 53c | 545.25$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 296 | 49.7%147 W · 149 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Andrej Nedic | 47c | 538.2$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.66 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sumit Nagal | 42c | 529.27$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.7 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Andrej Nedic | 47c | 524.88$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.18 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…d106backed Sumit Nagal | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Sumit Nagal | 51c | 493.37$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.62 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Andrej Nedic | 48c | 441.83$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Sumit Nagal | 53c | 439.62$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 452 | 56.2%254 W · 198 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Sumit Nagal | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 312 | 37.8%118 W · 194 L | -24.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sumit Nagal | 54c | 399.19$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.56 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Andrej Nedic | 49c | 305.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.31 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Sumit Nagal | 33c | 285.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Sumit Nagal | 52c | 246.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Sumit Nagal | 26c | 237$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Sumit Nagal | 36c | 236.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Sumit Nagal | 41c | 205$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Andrej Nedic | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Andrej Nedic | 49c | 193.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…df01backed Sumit Nagal | 52c | 188.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…141bbacked Andrej Nedic | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Andrej Nedic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked Andrej Nedic | 70c | 142.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 179 | 72.6%130 W · 49 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Sumit Nagal | 31c | 140.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Andrej Nedic | 48c | 135$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Andrej Nedic | 74c | 125.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Sumit Nagal | 18c | 119.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Andrej Nedic | 59c | 109.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Andrej Nedic | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Sumit Nagal | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Sumit Nagal | 54c | 100.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Andrej Nedic | 70c | 98.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +17.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Andrej Nedic | 51c | 95.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Andrej Nedic | 58c | 94.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Andrej Nedic | 46c | 92.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…4c3abacked Andrej Nedic | 72c | 83.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 147 | 75.5%111 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Andrej Nedic | 73c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Andrej Nedic | 71c | 77.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Andrej Nedic | 46c | 68.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Andrej Nedic | 56c | 67.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6959…084fbacked Andrej Nedic | 79c | 62.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…b1fbbacked Andrej Nedic | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Sumit Nagal | 28c | 60.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Sumit Nagal | 50c | 60.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sumit Nagal | 20c | 57.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Andrej Nedic | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…4820backed Sumit Nagal | 28c | 44.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Andrej Nedic | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Andrej Nedic | 47c | 40.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Sumit Nagal | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 313 | 47.6%149 W · 164 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Sumit Nagal | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 15.3%22 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Andrej Nedic | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7982backed Sumit Nagal | 54c | 38.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Andrej Nedic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Sumit Nagal | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…54afbacked Sumit Nagal | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Andrej Nedic | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…1d6bbacked Andrej Nedic | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Andrej Nedic | 55c | 29.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Andrej Nedic | 63c | 29.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…d9ebbacked Sumit Nagal | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Andrej Nedic | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Andrej Nedic | 47c | 26.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Andrej Nedic | 47c | 25.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Andrej Nedic | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Andrej Nedic | 46c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Andrej Nedic | 71c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Andrej Nedic | 56c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampere: Sumit Nagal vs Andrej Nedicthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Nagal vs NedicNedic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.