Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc936c674f4de8df43369f30d6d52cd02f706f86d26758e6f22511aad8af3fd42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof OG, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Team Falcons | 69c | 2,711$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons | 67c | 2,085$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.16 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 69c | 2,070$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.84 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked OG | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 1,933$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.76 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed OG | 44c | 1,818$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 31c | 1,700$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.9 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Team Falcons | 69c | 1,500$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.02 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed OG | 33c | 1,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.84 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 38c | 1,314$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OG | 33c | 1,086$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.63 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked OG | 32c | 861.67$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.74 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Team Falcons | 63c | 796.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.52 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Team Falcons | 62c | 767.43$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.84 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed OG | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…78aebacked OG | 13c | 550$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed OG | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Falcons | 69c | 289.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Team Falcons | 62c | 275.49$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked OG | 27c | 230.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed OG | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Team Falcons | 68c | 147.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…5473backed OG | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 128.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked OG | 32c | 123.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…10a8backed OG | 10c | 105.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked OG | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Falcons | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed OG | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 36c | 96.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed OG | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed OG | 17c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed OG | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked OG | 35c | 74.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked OG | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked OG | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…8b6cbacked OG | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed OG | 35c | 56.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f95…38ffbacked OG | 43c | 46.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked OG | 35c | 45.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…05e1backed OG | 32c | 43.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…9a81backed Team Falcons | 71c | 41.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed OG | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked OG | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Team Falcons | 74c | 36.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed OG | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed OG | 37c | 27.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.