Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3d776ef2869ef5098bd5cf66ed3200617b3f911869bd13b6521cdcb58eaf670

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Team Falconsof OG, Team Falcons
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $78,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,676 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29f9…e310backed Team Falcons	60c	10,311$6,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,141.36	122	56.6%69 W · 53 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked OG	44c	8,021$3,512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,512.39	866	59.6%516 W · 350 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Falcons	61c	7,686$4,672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,013.34	276	45.3%125 W · 151 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG	41c	7,630$3,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,139.51	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons	47c	5,879$2,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,114.39	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Falcons	71c	4,939$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,439.47	489	54.6%267 W · 222 L	+23.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked OG	44c	4,680$2,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,045.96	534	51.7%276 W · 258 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed OG	44c	4,335$1,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,898.22	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Falcons	52c	3,756$1,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,805.78	149	47.7%71 W · 78 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OG	40c	3,556$1,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,439.08	897	49.6%445 W · 452 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked OG	40c	2,299$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922.48	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…dc88backed Team Falcons	55c	2,262$1,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,021.28	42	50%21 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5a…ca43backed Team Falcons	58c	2,159$1,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$896.91	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Falcons	59c	1,692$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.67	104	51%53 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked OG	69c	1,599$1,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.3	128	62.5%80 W · 48 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG	41c	1,500$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked OG	40c	1,250$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1,186	43.2%512 W · 674 L	+42.2wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Team Falcons	61c	1,156$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.44	178	52.8%94 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed OG	62c	1,145$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.24	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed OG	7c	1,110$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	544	45.8%249 W · 295 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23d…f322backed Team Falcons	47c	1,000$470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG	39c	963.3$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.69	451	39.2%177 W · 274 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed OG	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f6…d549backed OG	59c	682.93$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.58	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed OG	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked OG	33c	581.55$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.88	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-14.1wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons	60c	571.41$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.56	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed OG	35c	571.38$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.98	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed OG	40c	517.98$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.19	197	43.1%85 W · 112 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed OG	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	130	27.7%36 W · 94 L	-9.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43ac…86d0backed OG	44c	500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons	28c	485$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.2	897	41.5%372 W · 525 L	+22.7wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed OG	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	124	59.7%74 W · 50 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4895…4a75backed OG	58c	390.34$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.06	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc76b…5fbabacked Team Falcons	65c	354.37$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.14	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Falcons	67c	347.3$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.61	166	65.7%109 W · 57 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95e7…4152backed OG	44c	338.54$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.4	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9975…e7e6backed Team Falcons	62c	323.39$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.39	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked OG	34c	292.37$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	39%32 W · 50 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked OG	72c	279.32$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	353	70%247 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	69cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked OG	42c	256.71$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.82	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1765backed OG	44c	228.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.98	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked OG	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3faa…bf0cbacked OG	55c	201.49$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.43	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-33%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Team Falcons	50c	200.01$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.4	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fac…bdd8backed Team Falcons	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	134	56%75 W · 59 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d83…b76bbacked OG	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Team Falcons	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	255	47.8%122 W · 133 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…9a81backed OG	8c	198.35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Team Falcons	63c	177.29$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.43	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked OG	36c	169.65$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.07	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaef…db07backed Team Falcons	74c	162.28$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.78	144	61.8%89 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x800a…e822backed Team Falcons	76c	131.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.58	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked OG	29c	113$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.77	702	36.6%257 W · 445 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4f…ce1fbacked OG	34c	109.95$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.16	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed OG	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked OG	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Team Falcons	68c	85.8$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.46	205	56.1%115 W · 90 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked Team Falcons	65c	84.6$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.61	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+26%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c27…6964backed OG	25c	80.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-5.4wins	-0.36per pick	49cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5a05…4c5abacked Team Falcons	70c	75.72$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.61	94	78.7%74 W · 20 L	+13.0wins	+0.14per pick	65cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed OG	40c	75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64f4…9db5backed OG	40c	75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d39…b8a0backed OG	32c	70$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05a…19eebacked OG	61c	62.79$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.54	40	67.5%27 W · 13 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…8aa8backed Team Falcons	63c	61.89$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.94	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Falcons	66c	61.04$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.04	146	68.5%100 W · 46 L	+14.3wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce6f…778fbacked Team Falcons	79c	60.56$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.56	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb261…f3a0backed Team Falcons	71c	60$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed OG	44c	56.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked OG	41c	56.1$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	132	38.6%51 W · 81 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked OG	59c	54.13$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.84	468	72.2%338 W · 130 L	+36.5wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0953…91b9backed OG	37c	53.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Team Falcons	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	42	64.3%27 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed OG	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	240	26.7%64 W · 176 L	-30.5wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed OG	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed OG	43c	49.85$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	726	37.5%272 W · 454 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3099…d252backed Team Falcons	72c	46.55$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	75	70.7%53 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0808…3aafbacked OG	47c	43.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.49	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9de0…d8b7backed Team Falcons	40c	43.27$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.12	43	67.4%29 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked OG	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	236	40.7%96 W · 140 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccfe…0608backed OG	40c	39.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Team Falcons	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8acb…4d65backed Team Falcons	76c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.98	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked OG	44c	32.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	158	52.5%83 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Team Falcons	62c	32.16$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.16	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	+12.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Falcons	54c	31.61$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.43	203	61.6%125 W · 78 L	+22.0wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+12%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Team Falcons	55c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons (BO3)Team Falcons won
Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: OG vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event