MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0226d375271f702762fc9a46af94d3934bc8fa0a0fca60d80e7dfe622c93c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 43,355$20,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,157.6 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 55c | 18,400$10,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,036 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 14,583$7,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,860.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 8,196$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,343.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.99 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 3,230$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.78 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 2,957$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.2 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 2,149$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.36 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 47c | 1,636$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.08 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 45c | 1,283$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.16 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 1,193$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 47c | 1,153$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.05 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 45c | 1,113$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.15 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 1,058$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.31 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 951.2$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.82 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 53c | 938.58$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 933.25$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 654.19$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 600$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 55c | 582$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.1 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 515.21$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.37 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 54c | 402$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 374$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 373$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 294.31$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…c1c9backed Over | 56c | 265.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 39c | 193$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 167.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 45c | 162$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 45c | 118.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 50c | 101$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 54c | 100.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 89.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Under | 47c | 78.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 68c | 70.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 77c | 64.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 45c | 55.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…36aabacked Under | 52c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 43.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Under | 65c | 38.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…cf7cbacked Over | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 29.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Under | 45c | 27.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 48c | 26.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…86c3backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 77c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 63c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.