Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2759ef5c7dff8cecd94033ae425100a233d7ba67942093c51140c4dc24c8bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 777.98$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 65c | 463.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 431.82$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 47c | 376.91$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 60c | 313.71$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 38c | 294.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 280.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 35c | 267.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 266.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 67c | 238.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 225.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 200.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 175.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 173.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 42c | 164.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 148.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 133.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 76c | 131.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 130.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 40c | 123.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 62c | 119.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 119.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 114.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 84.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 34c | 79.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 72.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 49c | 65.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 48c | 52.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed Yes | 61c | 51.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 57c | 47.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 30c | 41.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 66c | 38.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 62c | 37.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 39c | 33.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 32.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 30.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 30.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 60c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 47c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 62c | 27.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 26.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 39c | 26.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 60c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 48c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 74c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…f061backed Yes | 79c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…bf3abacked Yes | 79c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.