TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora41c69,195$28,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,008.6533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons52c60,109$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Aurora42c21,190$8,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,240.262272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+45.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked Team Falcons43c20,000$8,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,7002352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Team Falcons33c14,085$4,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,716.136139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons43c11,403$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,917.552,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora66c9,631$6,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.6855751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Aurora54c9,579$5,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,411.827058.6%41 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Aurora48c8,923$4,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,668.598150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Falcons61c8,000$4,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,88059154%319 W · 272 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Aurora54c6,291$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,891.7252046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Aurora67c5,807$3,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.5717452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Team Falcons36c5,771$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.743225%8 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons60c5,164$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10029160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Falcons60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9913960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f84…8d1dbacked Aurora66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Team Falcons59c4,531$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6732857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team Falcons50c4,399$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.220740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Aurora41c4,398$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.486544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed Team Falcons60c3,525$2,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Team Falcons61c3,453$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.6727636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Falcons10c3,132$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.5971142.6%303 W · 408 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Aurora72c3,120$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.8225150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked Team Falcons13c3,064$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Aurora39c3,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.9915144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Aurora39c2,891$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.2226540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons28c2,875$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.31,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Team Falcons59c2,826$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.43023.3%7 W · 23 L-6.2wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-47%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Aurora59c2,734$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.2392846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Team Falcons61c2,671$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.068739.1%34 W · 53 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons35c2,520$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.961,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Team Falcons59c2,139$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.421421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-57.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed Aurora66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6804973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9de…7310backed Team Falcons60c1,863$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.550%0 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed Team Falcons59c1,853$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.48850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Falcons57c1,826$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.9915337.3%57 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons40c1,687$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.611,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Aurora75c1,668$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.7310766.4%71 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Aurora40c1,606$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.617648.3%85 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons33c1,550$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.841,11336.2%403 W · 710 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb676…3303backed Aurora67c1,517$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.621442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed Aurora67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.999161.5%56 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf681…9b77backed Team Falcons59c1,420$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Team Falcons58c1,418$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.3613844.9%62 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Falcons59c1,408$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.7115950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Falcons1c1,405$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ab…13a1backed Team Falcons59c1,380$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora74c1,269$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.8689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Team Falcons55c1,250$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.521353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Aurora40c1,220$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.961249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Aurora40c1,218$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.565550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Team Falcons33c1,215$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons54c1,183$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.481,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Team Falcons61c1,158$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.682245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Team Falcons60c1,111$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.620452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa41…79dbbacked Team Falcons9c1,082$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be1…39c9backed Team Falcons60c1,050$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons48c1,040$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.5788938%338 W · 551 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons24c1,022$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.161,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Falcons33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33020642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Aurora39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61029143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Team Falcons33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33029546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Team Falcons53c912$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.6812447.6%59 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora39c905$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54817146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Aurora67c898.96$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.964768.1%32 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Aurora41c886.57$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.1743049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Aurora73c834.12$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2168649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Falcons61c797$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.1749732.2%160 W · 337 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Aurora64c781.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.2514562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora78c773.06$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.881,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Team Falcons59c764.75$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.22227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Aurora40c763.88$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.3362650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Falcons47c750$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35553758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons15c736.57$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.711,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed Aurora40c728.58$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.1513459.7%80 W · 54 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons58c720$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Aurora68c707.97$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5567853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Falcons21c671.35$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9158742.8%251 W · 336 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5054…1582backed Team Falcons60c666.67$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Team Falcons60c661.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009946.5%46 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Aurora69c660.24$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6727060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed Aurora42c630.95$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.955843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons58c628.05$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.9432951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed Team Falcons59c605$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20b5…a3b5backed Team Falcons33c604.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010934.9%38 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Team Falcons14c600$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8416256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c5…6b9abacked Team Falcons4c596.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Aurora40c571.87$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.125949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6013…9826backed Team Falcons52c570$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.73650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f95…15d7backed Team Falcons9c543.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Aurora39c536.81$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.3410966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora41c528.12$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.0434154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons24c520.55$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.761,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2613…8527backed Team Falcons10c513.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Team Falcons59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Team Falcons61c503.66$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.233345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Aurora41c501$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.591668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Aurora40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30017133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.