Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4180447a975a8a55989db5b6013675ee53e3ca3c0d7c7a0a76b8675cc13701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $394,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 41c | 69,195$28,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,008.65 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons | 52c | 60,109$31,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078f…796cbacked Aurora | 42c | 21,190$8,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,240.26 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47b3…039cbacked Team Falcons | 43c | 20,000$8,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,700 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…75d9backed Team Falcons | 33c | 14,085$4,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,716.13 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 43c | 11,403$4,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,917.55 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 66c | 9,631$6,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.68 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Aurora | 54c | 9,579$5,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,411.82 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Aurora | 48c | 8,923$4,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,668.59 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 8,000$4,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880 | 591 | 54%319 W · 272 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Aurora | 54c | 6,291$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.72 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Aurora | 67c | 5,807$3,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.57 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Team Falcons | 36c | 5,771$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.74 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons | 60c | 5,164$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f84…8d1dbacked Aurora | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Team Falcons | 59c | 4,531$2,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,673 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Team Falcons | 50c | 4,399$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.2 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…7491backed Aurora | 41c | 4,398$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,598.48 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…abb5backed Team Falcons | 60c | 3,525$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Team Falcons | 61c | 3,453$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.67 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Falcons | 10c | 3,132$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.59 | 711 | 42.6%303 W · 408 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Aurora | 72c | 3,120$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.82 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x468c…d7cabacked Team Falcons | 13c | 3,064$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Aurora | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed Aurora | 39c | 2,891$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.22 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons | 28c | 2,875$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.3 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Team Falcons | 59c | 2,826$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Aurora | 59c | 2,734$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.23 | 928 | 46.2%429 W · 499 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 2,671$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.06 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 35c | 2,520$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.96 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 2,139$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5473backed Aurora | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…7310backed Team Falcons | 60c | 1,863$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…03d0backed Team Falcons | 59c | 1,853$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Team Falcons | 57c | 1,826$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.99 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 1,687$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.61 | 1,270 | 45.1%573 W · 697 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Aurora | 75c | 1,668$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.73 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Aurora | 40c | 1,606$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.6 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons | 33c | 1,550$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.84 | 1,113 | 36.2%403 W · 710 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…3303backed Aurora | 67c | 1,517$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Aurora | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.99 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…9b77backed Team Falcons | 59c | 1,420$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 1,418$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.36 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Team Falcons | 59c | 1,408$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.71 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Falcons | 1c | 1,405$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…13a1backed Team Falcons | 59c | 1,380$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 74c | 1,269$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.86 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Team Falcons | 55c | 1,250$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.5 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Aurora | 40c | 1,220$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.9 | 612 | 49.7%304 W · 308 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…72babacked Aurora | 40c | 1,218$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.56 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed Team Falcons | 33c | 1,215$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons | 54c | 1,183$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.48 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 1,158$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.68 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Team Falcons | 60c | 1,111$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.6 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa41…79dbbacked Team Falcons | 9c | 1,082$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…39c9backed Team Falcons | 60c | 1,050$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 1,040$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.57 | 889 | 38%338 W · 551 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons | 24c | 1,022$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Falcons | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 206 | 42.2%87 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Aurora | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Team Falcons | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Team Falcons | 53c | 912$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.68 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Aurora | 39c | 905$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…100ebacked Aurora | 67c | 898.96$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.96 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Aurora | 41c | 886.57$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.17 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 73c | 834.12$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.21 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Falcons | 61c | 797$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.17 | 497 | 32.2%160 W · 337 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Aurora | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 78c | 773.06$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.88 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Team Falcons | 59c | 764.75$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 40c | 763.88$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.33 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Team Falcons | 47c | 750$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons | 15c | 736.57$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Aurora | 40c | 728.58$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.15 | 134 | 59.7%80 W · 54 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons | 58c | 720$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.6 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 68c | 707.97$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Falcons | 21c | 671.35$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…1582backed Team Falcons | 60c | 666.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Team Falcons | 60c | 661.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Aurora | 69c | 660.24$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…2f60backed Aurora | 42c | 630.95$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.95 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons | 58c | 628.05$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.94 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…31a1backed Team Falcons | 59c | 605$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b5…a3b5backed Team Falcons | 33c | 604.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Team Falcons | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c5…6b9abacked Team Falcons | 4c | 596.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…c40dbacked Aurora | 40c | 571.87$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.12 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed Team Falcons | 52c | 570$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f95…15d7backed Team Falcons | 9c | 543.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked Aurora | 39c | 536.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.34 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 41c | 528.12$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.04 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 24c | 520.55$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…8527backed Team Falcons | 10c | 513.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Team Falcons | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 503.66$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Aurora | 41c | 501$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Aurora | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.