Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562e49e526113c280e87281ed734fa01b8d9ecc03d35c979a631ef28fdf9b9a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $634,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $752,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons | 54c | 129,581$70,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Aurora | 57c | 50,200$28,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,703.96 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Aurora | 45c | 32,320$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,919.82 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora | 46c | 26,953$12,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,571.12 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 44c | 25,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,999.99 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f3d3backed Team Falcons | 53c | 17,000$8,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,969.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora | 47c | 16,828$7,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,882.75 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons | 4c | 14,257$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.79 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 51c | 11,000$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,389.99 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…75d9backed Team Falcons | 53c | 10,143$5,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,375.8 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 52c | 10,141$5,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,880.3 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Team Falcons | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 47c | 9,046$4,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836.83 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked Aurora | 49c | 8,000$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,061.91 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…59e9backed Team Falcons | 6c | 7,899$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Aurora | 64c | 7,721$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.04 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora | 71c | 7,525$5,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.14 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Team Falcons | 27c | 6,907$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Aurora | 45c | 6,889$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.8 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 47c | 6,617$3,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.02 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…eae7backed Aurora | 50c | 6,412$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.96 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Team Falcons | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Team Falcons | 38c | 5,767$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Team Falcons | 55c | 5,522$3,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,064.57 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 33c | 5,081$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.74 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Team Falcons | 50c | 5,060$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.77 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Aurora | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.99 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Aurora | 55c | 4,586$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.15 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons | 45c | 4,358$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.11 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078f…796cbacked Aurora | 46c | 4,314$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.03 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Team Falcons | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Team Falcons | 14c | 3,905$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.41 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons | 41c | 3,833$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.17 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 35c | 3,335$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.69 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 3,265$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.44 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons | 24c | 3,242$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.77 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Aurora | 47c | 3,177$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.6 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Falcons | 40c | 3,132$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.61 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Team Falcons | 50c | 2,972$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.65 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…cc46backed Team Falcons | 47c | 2,960$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f84…8d1dbacked Team Falcons | 54c | 2,950$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 44c | 2,646$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.35 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Team Falcons | 52c | 2,507$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.41 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Aurora | 48c | 2,390$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.82 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Falcons | 45c | 2,369$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.56 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac3…e467backed Team Falcons | 45c | 2,300$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Team Falcons | 50c | 2,266$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons | 37c | 2,251$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.76 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons | 23c | 2,117$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.36 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Team Falcons | 51c | 2,058$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.57 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Aurora | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons | 30c | 2,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Team Falcons | 47c | 1,944$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.06 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons | 20c | 1,869$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.24 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons | 51c | 1,851$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.48 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 79c | 1,814$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.92 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons | 39c | 1,773$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.07 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Team Falcons | 52c | 1,616$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.28 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Falcons | 32c | 1,608$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.31 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…7491backed Aurora | 60c | 1,595$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.81 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…0d84backed Aurora | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 49c | 1,452$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.69 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons | 50c | 1,426$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.91 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked Team Falcons | 18c | 1,425$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.63 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Team Falcons | 57c | 1,409$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468c…d7cabacked Aurora | 59c | 1,365$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.55 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Team Falcons | 38c | 1,343$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.59 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Team Falcons | 49c | 1,290$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.9 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 48c | 1,286$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.29 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Aurora | 66c | 1,250$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora | 44c | 1,250$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons | 53c | 1,246$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.51 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Team Falcons | 53c | 1,234$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.02 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Team Falcons | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons | 40c | 1,215$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.07 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Team Falcons | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons | 41c | 1,164$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.13 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora | 45c | 1,088$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.4 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Team Falcons | 29c | 1,042$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,020$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons | 37c | 1,002$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.24 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Team Falcons | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | -22.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Aurora | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…6fc2backed Team Falcons | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aurora | 75c | 996.25$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 995.83$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.44 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora | 42c | 978.97$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.8 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Falcons | 23c | 966.77$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.74 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora | 48c | 952.35$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.22 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed Aurora | 63c | 950.98$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.98 | 453 | 52.1%236 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab7…756bbacked Aurora | 54c | 926.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…f3c8backed Team Falcons | 10c | 925.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora | 64c | 910.88$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.29 | 249 | 47.8%119 W · 130 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…ccefbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 884.62$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Falcons | 44c | 812$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.48 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 805.68$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.08 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Team Falcons | 29c | 750.69$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.