TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$634,062
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$752,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,062 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons54c129,581$70,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Aurora57c50,200$28,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,703.9617452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Aurora45c32,320$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,919.8222644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora46c26,953$12,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,571.128847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora44c25,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,999.9928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed Team Falcons53c17,000$8,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,969.924548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora47c16,828$7,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,882.7540051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons4c14,257$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.7940014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora51c11,000$5,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,389.9941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc04e…75d9backed Team Falcons53c10,143$5,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,375.86139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora52c10,141$5,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,880.396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be0…6deebacked Team Falcons0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora47c9,046$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,836.831,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Aurora49c8,000$3,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,061.915154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9bf…59e9backed Team Falcons6c7,899$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Aurora64c7,721$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,751.0429160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora71c7,525$5,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.1453764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Team Falcons27c6,907$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8589630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Aurora45c6,889$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,805.88048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora47c6,617$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,507.0271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Aurora50c6,412$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,208.9612557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Team Falcons49c6,122$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00018954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Falcons38c5,767$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Falcons55c5,522$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,064.5755751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons33c5,081$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.742,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Falcons50c5,060$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.7729042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Aurora44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9911547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed Aurora55c4,586$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.158540%34 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons45c4,358$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.1189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Aurora46c4,314$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,314.032272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+45.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Falcons50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Falcons14c3,905$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.4125446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons41c3,833$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.172,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75010646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons35c3,335$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.691,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons54c3,265$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.4485851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons24c3,242$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.771,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Aurora47c3,177$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.68150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Falcons40c3,132$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.6125752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Falcons50c2,972$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.6543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Team Falcons47c2,960$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4002733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f84…8d1dbacked Team Falcons54c2,950$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.11540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora44c2,646$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.3556542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Team Falcons52c2,507$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.418360.2%50 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Aurora48c2,390$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.8231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Falcons45c2,369$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.5613544.4%60 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac3…e467backed Team Falcons45c2,300$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.861346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Team Falcons50c2,266$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.462055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons37c2,251$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.761,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons23c2,117$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.3692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Falcons51c2,058$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.5741351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Aurora48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons30c2,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61019147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Team Falcons47c1,944$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.0625150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons20c1,869$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.241,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons51c1,851$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.4888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora79c1,814$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.9261057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons39c1,773$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.0777256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Falcons52c1,616$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.2852046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Falcons32c1,608$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3135062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Aurora60c1,595$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.816544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf93…0d84backed Aurora46c1,500$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8057553.3%40 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora49c1,452$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.691,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons50c1,426$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.9169644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked Team Falcons18c1,425$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6320859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Team Falcons57c1,409$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked Aurora59c1,365$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.553764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Team Falcons38c1,343$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.596141%25 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Falcons49c1,290$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.925935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora48c1,286$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.2960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed Aurora66c1,250$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4259161.5%56 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora44c1,250$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.9965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons53c1,246$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.5136343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Team Falcons53c1,234$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.0220452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4884…1310backed Team Falcons41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011446.5%53 W · 61 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons40c1,215$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.0747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Falcons51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61231547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Falcons41c1,164$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.1350749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Aurora45c1,088$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.423746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Falcons29c1,042$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30048057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora48c1,020$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.441055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons37c1,002$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Team Falcons3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030643.5%133 W · 173 L-22.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41035758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Aurora43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57029143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…6fc2backed Team Falcons54c999.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.994654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Aurora75c996.25$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.221,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons40c995.83$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.441,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora42c978.97$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.826846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Falcons23c966.77$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7491553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora48c952.35$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.2216945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Aurora63c950.98$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.9845352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab7…756bbacked Aurora54c926.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.341464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+47.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc159…f3c8backed Team Falcons10c925.87$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3219238.5%74 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Aurora64c910.88$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.2924947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5167…ccefbacked Team Falcons52c884.62$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603030%9 W · 21 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-47.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Falcons44c812$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4827737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Team Falcons40c805.68$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.0826956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Team Falcons29c750.69$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.520740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.