Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5d30efd864e27401581f35f7d2a5f71070d05122866c4a216f85f3b9c18806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Henan FCof Henan FC, Qingdao Hainiu FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 69c | 3,129$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.75 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Henan FC | 65c | 1,846$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf1…d61abacked Henan FC | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 62c | 482.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Henan FC | 79c | 419.33$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…02b0backed Henan FC | 43c | 399.98$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Henan FC | 41c | 384.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Henan FC | 31c | 358.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.35 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 64c | 259.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Henan FC | 35c | 190.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 61c | 148.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 66c | 139.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 66c | 115.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 1,464 | 35.6%521 W · 943 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Henan FC | 42c | 110.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Henan FC | 27c | 106.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 16c | 97.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Henan FC | 32c | 80.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Henan FC | 44c | 75.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 68c | 62.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Henan FC | 31c | 57.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 56c | 51.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 273 | 37%101 W · 172 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 60c | 49.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 66c | 48.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 72c | 38.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 79c | 33.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 334 | 54.8%183 W · 151 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Henan FC | 40c | 31.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 67c | 30.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 71c | 21.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…48c6backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 66c | 20.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Qingdao Hainiu FC | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Henan FC | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Henan FC (-2.5)this page
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Henan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Henan FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Henan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Henan FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)Henan FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Henan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.