TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c2,132$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.471,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes33c1,096$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.731043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c749.71$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.618,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes35c608.86$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.231,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No68c579.99$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes27c524.44$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9330442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed No73c514.87$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5817536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c437.78$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.472,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes33c398.6$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.852737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c397.31$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.574,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No65c354.18$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.91,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No63c323.41$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.734,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No68c236.24$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.1845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No65c220$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.14,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes28c187.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.563,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c158$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.785,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c155.71$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No65c136.65$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes28c134.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.321,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No75c133.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No67c129.83$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.761,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes33c128.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5813838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.352758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No72c109.19$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2992678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c99.88$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.422,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c79.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes33c77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No68c76.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No67c76.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.043,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes30c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No70c71.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4925358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes23c70.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.971,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c70.3$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.813,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.575,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes26c67.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.364,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes30c61.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.46,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No75c59.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.812876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No71c58.03$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9554547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes32c57.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1830332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes48c57.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.522030%6 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes39c56.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.914353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes29c54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6633350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.518629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.951,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe67c…3de5backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes32c49.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.722,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No65c46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.186949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes32c44.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2271649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d3…f6d9backed No70c42.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.741770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff1…e002backed No60c40.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.136163.9%39 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.815961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No70c39.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8155954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c38.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4683360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes29c37.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.854,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No71c36.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6233654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No71c34.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.031,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No69c33.93$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.521,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No76c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No70c33.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No72c31.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8226458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c30.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…2b99backed No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.35664.3%36 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8528666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No69c26.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.32,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No71c24.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1425954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No66c23.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8819648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No70c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.329281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.416453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No70c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.814953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No68c14.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No68c14.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7294066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.