Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bda4be9a70ab5428f708f83737b750aeb800c2614fbe880fc596e509a0fcecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,133$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.48 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 45c | 469.77$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.97 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 341.41$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 336.74$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 275.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 268.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 235.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 224.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 200.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes | 49c | 188.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 176.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 176$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 168.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 159.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 158$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 49c | 143.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 56c | 143.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 140.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 129.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 127.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 28c | 108.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 51c | 104.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 46c | 94.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 89.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 83.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 77.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 72.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 72.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 70.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 36c | 69.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 65.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 23c | 59.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 43c | 52.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 21c | 50.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 48c | 48.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 44.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 54c | 38.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 36.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 35.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 55c | 32.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…cc0cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 35c | 30.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 24.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 58c | 23.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.