Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb00116a8d4e2ed085476a818fae34aa74e8c4b3cbc34c49d3d708d712786cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 50c | 665.22$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 71c | 577.63$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 397.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 27c | 308.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 47c | 282.34$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 9c | 256.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 187.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 64c | 165.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 50c | 107.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 58c | 106.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 95.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 63c | 95.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 57c | 85.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 75.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 71.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 51.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 28c | 50.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…51cfbacked No | 33c | 48.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 47.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 45.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 51c | 35.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 33.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 30.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 29.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 62c | 28.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…0859backed Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 70c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…bf8fbacked Yes | 51c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 16.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 16.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.