CS2 · resolved market
Will Aurora win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb00cce4d818fa93e254c3ac72a6d19ffc7da3629e61fd7fe318a765d1255381
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Yes | 36c | 230,635$83,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,353.11 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 64c | 110,000$69,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 63c | 39,711$24,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,820.04 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 26c | 19,999$5,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,239.74 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed No | 74c | 19,787$14,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,233.59 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Yes | 26c | 10,054$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.8 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 74c | 10,030$7,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.92 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes | 2c | 5,882$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 27c | 5,552$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.43 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Yes | 34c | 4,567$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.87 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 5c | 4,067$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.96 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 37c | 4,000$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 20c | 3,661$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.7 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…8169backed Yes | 39c | 3,521$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.21 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 2,440$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.27 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…e5e5backed No | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Yes | 38c | 1,580$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.27 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.99 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…ad52backed Yes | 34c | 1,456$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed No | 64c | 1,078$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.13 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 28c | 1,036$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.94 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed No | 66c | 900$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…37fabacked Yes | 6c | 852.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…2cdbbacked Yes | 4c | 745$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 62c | 743.95$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 63c | 705.82$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.71 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…156abacked No | 73c | 688.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Yes | 30c | 657.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 12c | 631.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes | 32c | 619.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 67c | 587.67$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.76 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d8…655abacked No | 64c | 579.94$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Yes | 38c | 578.95$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 36c | 500$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 31c | 446.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 64c | 437.52$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Yes | 34c | 435.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Yes | 8c | 417.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…e28cbacked Yes | 8c | 417.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed No | 63c | 412.96$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4b…aba8backed Yes | 27c | 364.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 32c | 318.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…7198backed Yes | 16c | 296.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Yes | 39c | 271.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 63c | 250$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 137 | 40.9%56 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 38c | 205.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 7c | 198.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 46c | 170$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 70c | 143.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed Yes | 32c | 120.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Yes | 36c | 119.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…dd20backed Yes | 32c | 117.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 219 | 42.5%93 W · 126 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…6a20backed Yes | 38c | 100.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked Yes | 38c | 93.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a6…f55fbacked Yes | 35c | 90.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…c0abbacked Yes | 35c | 80.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…78aebacked No | 73c | 73.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…0467backed Yes | 34c | 58.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…f26ebacked Yes | 38c | 55.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 162 | 36.4%59 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…b68cbacked Yes | 34c | 54.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 37c | 48.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 31c | 41.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6223…0671backed Yes | 36c | 41.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c5…21aabacked Yes | 34c | 40.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 300 | 39.7%119 W · 181 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…d38bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 72c | 21.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aurora win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?this page
- Will 3DMAX win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Astralis win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will FaZe win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Falcons win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will G2 win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will HEROIC win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Liquid win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will MOUZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Spirit win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will TYLOO win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will The MongolZ win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?Yes won
- Will Virtus.pro win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
- Will Vitality win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.