Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb855e159773d7a6a8ec2f41bbe40659107b32edc4c011d72f6fb88aaf9fbefe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 604.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 495.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 331.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 237.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 216$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 20c | 197.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed Yes | 57c | 191.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 184.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 182.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 68c | 158.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 15c | 155.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 153.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 22c | 152.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 141.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 42c | 141.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 48c | 138.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 136.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 130.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 12c | 128.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 10c | 127.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 120.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 41c | 114.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 108.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 48c | 100.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 39c | 100.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 64c | 97.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 89.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 17c | 89.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 29c | 85.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 72c | 83.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 41c | 73.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 27c | 71.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 24c | 66.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 52c | 62.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 39c | 61.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 72c | 59.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 34c | 58.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…abf2backed No | 36c | 53.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 46c | 51.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 48c | 50.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…7925backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…dcf3backed Yes | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 47c | 48.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 66c | 45.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 39c | 43.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 61c | 41.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 48c | 39.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 39.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 54c | 39.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…3b66backed No | 79c | 38.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 27c | 38.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 49c | 36.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 36c | 34.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…1b6dbacked No | 38c | 34.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +204%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 78c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 61c | 31.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 68c | 30.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 54c | 30.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 53c | 30.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 59c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 29.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Yes | 68c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 46c | 28.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 49c | 27.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 48c | 26.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes | 41c | 26.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 25.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 47c | 22.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…db67backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.