TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Sion: Luca Staeheli vs Andrey Chepelev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luca Staeheliof Luca Staeheli, Andrey Chepelev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,417
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,417 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc627…47b2backed Andrey Chepelev54c2,576$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40037557.6%216 W · 159 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa107…e6a1backed Luca Staeheli53c1,927$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.61764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Andrey Chepelev6c1,896$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.458,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d3…86f1backed Luca Staeheli58c1,791$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Luca Staeheli48c1,458$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.6111,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Andrey Chepelev47c1,207$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.861,69248.8%826 W · 866 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc144…c809backed Andrey Chepelev11c1,182$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010730.8%33 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Andrey Chepelev31c855.06$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.425,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Luca Staeheli62c831.42$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.834,12644.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L+13.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Andrey Chepelev42c819.5$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.853,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Andrey Chepelev50c731.9$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9512752.8%67 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Andrey Chepelev43c660.45$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.082,99757.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L+170.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdeaf…db60backed Andrey Chepelev4c625.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+91.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Luca Staeheli48c619.24$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.5659738.2%228 W · 369 L-27.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Luca Staeheli53c583.71$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.354,15952.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L+66.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Andrey Chepelev47c574.76$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.511,63848.2%789 W · 849 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Andrey Chepelev52c553.8$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.849,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Andrey Chepelev30c536.95$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.911,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Andrey Chepelev48c515$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.129932.8%98 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Andrey Chepelev47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23515349.7%76 W · 77 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fc…7d44backed Andrey Chepelev53c433.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Andrey Chepelev22c428.37$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.698,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Andrey Chepelev48c427$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.961,31843.6%574 W · 744 L-23.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Luca Staeheli58c415.73$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7344056.1%247 W · 193 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Luca Staeheli70c395$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.580558.6%472 W · 333 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Luca Staeheli50c393.48$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6348947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Andrey Chepelev43c367.5$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.241,54551.5%795 W · 750 L+5.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Andrey Chepelev7c342.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.572,69647.9%1,292 W · 1,404 L+46.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Andrey Chepelev8c338.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.093,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…ff8cbacked Andrey Chepelev48c328.6$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7340%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Andrey Chepelev44c311$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.322,75453.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L+71.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Andrey Chepelev47c264$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7627744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Andrey Chepelev63c257.97$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.527,74550.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L+93.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Luca Staeheli59c218.26$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.081,00154.9%550 W · 451 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Luca Staeheli74c217.26$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.071,76446.8%826 W · 938 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc5…5fdebacked Andrey Chepelev48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022442.9%96 W · 128 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0e…1cebbacked Andrey Chepelev24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018439.1%72 W · 112 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Luca Staeheli54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9214858.8%87 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Luca Staeheli48c183.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6732659.2%193 W · 133 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd072…95e8backed Andrey Chepelev52c181.51$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3422951.1%117 W · 112 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Luca Staeheli65c156.74$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8610372.8%75 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a99…d29fbacked Luca Staeheli54c148.15$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.1530042.3%127 W · 173 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Andrey Chepelev8c129.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Luca Staeheli79c124.32$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8772147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Luca Staeheli48c120$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.731,25238.8%486 W · 766 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55a8…e802backed Andrey Chepelev43c115.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5036342.1%153 W · 210 L-16.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Andrey Chepelev30c105.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.750341.9%211 W · 292 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Andrey Chepelev23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2339444.4%175 W · 219 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Andrey Chepelev47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,89548.1%911 W · 984 L+15.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Andrey Chepelev26c93.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.11,95843.7%856 W · 1,102 L-21.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea88…261abacked Andrey Chepelev43c90.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.711566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd8…e509backed Luca Staeheli58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.211266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Andrey Chepelev18c83.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656a…6077backed Luca Staeheli58c82.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.672560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Luca Staeheli62c81.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.867745.6%309 W · 368 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Andrey Chepelev38c77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.261,84244.8%825 W · 1,017 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba9…2210backed Andrey Chepelev40c74.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Andrey Chepelev43c70.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029945.8%137 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Andrey Chepelev16c69.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241,37144.5%610 W · 761 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Luca Staeheli57c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.059660.4%58 W · 38 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2516…51edbacked Luca Staeheli77c63.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6215374.5%114 W · 39 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Luca Staeheli58c61.47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.863,80945.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L-35.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Andrey Chepelev43c58.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.276,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…f972backed Andrey Chepelev48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511640.5%47 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Luca Staeheli55c50.51$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.591,96546.4%911 W · 1,054 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Luca Staeheli60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2019556.9%111 W · 84 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa69…ff71backed Luca Staeheli66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.98367.5%56 W · 27 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Andrey Chepelev46c48.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.27,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Andrey Chepelev43c48.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6930465.1%198 W · 106 L+20.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x882e…e0a1backed Andrey Chepelev25c43.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111237.5%42 W · 70 L-11.2wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Andrey Chepelev37c38.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071,01336.5%370 W · 643 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Luca Staeheli72c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.787634.5%302 W · 574 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Luca Staeheli57c34.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6666347.1%312 W · 351 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Luca Staeheli59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.317648.3%85 W · 91 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Luca Staeheli55c29.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2120457.4%117 W · 87 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Luca Staeheli58c27.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7526547.9%127 W · 138 L-1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Luca Staeheli53c27.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.759056.7%51 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05f…2465backed Luca Staeheli59c22.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.187365.8%48 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Andrey Chepelev48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082,44235.8%874 W · 1,568 L-29.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Luca Staeheli60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881959.3%486 W · 333 L+2.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa261…af5bbacked Luca Staeheli60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812055.8%67 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Luca Staeheli52c19.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431,06652.4%559 W · 507 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.