Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb9a2abdcc5b63962ea971a6c647c028d79f25192a4bfa5b162e5dbaa281e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 63c | 870.94$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.94 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 35c | 806.16$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 683.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.21 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 65c | 573.56$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 274.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 245$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 240.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…38adbacked Yes | 74c | 228.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 227.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 35c | 226.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 37c | 196.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 40c | 194.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 193.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 175.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 13c | 168.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 66c | 159.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 149.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 149$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 133.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 38c | 126.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 120.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 45c | 116.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 97.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 70c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 62c | 80.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 79.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 64c | 78.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 57c | 75.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 70.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 69.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 62.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 41c | 62.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 61.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 61c | 55.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 57c | 52.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 65c | 51.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 41c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 33c | 44.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 32c | 41.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 37c | 38.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 68c | 36.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 69c | 36.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 32.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 35c | 29.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 64c | 28.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 64c | 28.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 62c | 28.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 25.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 67c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 67c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 59c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 66c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.