Tennis · resolved market
Merida Open Akron, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Lia Karatancheva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc2e3808c91f6c22a3a21ba1720311372c6b68228b5a9375ca0e704f83e3299d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Watsonof Watson, Karatancheva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Karatancheva | 17c | 5,999$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.85 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Watson | 77c | 3,090$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.53 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Karatancheva | 25c | 2,541$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.84 | 111 | 23.4%26 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Karatancheva | 26c | 1,849$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.75 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Watson | 73c | 1,841$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.5 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Watson | 74c | 1,757$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Karatancheva | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Karatancheva | 23c | 1,568$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.09 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Karatancheva | 20c | 1,523$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fb…acbabacked Watson | 74c | 1,385$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.03 | 260 | 65%169 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Karatancheva | 12c | 1,366$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Karatancheva | 30c | 1,200$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.69 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Karatancheva | 34c | 1,093$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.59 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Watson | 73c | 964.09$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.31 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Karatancheva | 26c | 919.23$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Karatancheva | 26c | 867.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.43 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Watson | 69c | 725.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 1,187 | 62.8%746 W · 441 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Watson | 77c | 722.1$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Karatancheva | 30c | 660.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Karatancheva | 33c | 657$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.74 | 680 | 26.2%178 W · 502 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Watson | 47c | 638.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.94 | 1,853 | 48.4%897 W · 956 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Watson | 60c | 636.12$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.76 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Karatancheva | 21c | 562$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 373 | 30.3%113 W · 260 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Watson | 51c | 552.75$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.74 | 1,123 | 50.3%565 W · 558 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fd…abf9backed Watson | 58c | 499.91$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Watson | 75c | 400.64$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Watson | 55c | 395.4$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Karatancheva | 29c | 365.11$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Karatancheva | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 503 | 64.6%325 W · 178 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Karatancheva | 31c | 320.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Karatancheva | 28c | 315.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Watson | 60c | 266$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Karatancheva | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Karatancheva | 25c | 232.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Watson | 79c | 211$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…5f4ebacked Karatancheva | 26c | 197.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Karatancheva | 32c | 189.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Karatancheva | 26c | 175.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Watson | 77c | 161.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Watson | 57c | 155$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Karatancheva | 27c | 153$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 866 | 47.9%415 W · 451 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Karatancheva | 44c | 150.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3e…bb7abacked Watson | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…d019backed Karatancheva | 33c | 134.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Karatancheva | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Watson | 69c | 115.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Watson | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Watson | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…42c1backed Karatancheva | 22c | 99.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Karatancheva | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Karatancheva | 31c | 87.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Watson | 40c | 71.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Karatancheva | 24c | 70.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Karatancheva | 44c | 70.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Karatancheva | 26c | 70.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Karatancheva | 24c | 69.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Watson | 70c | 66.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Karatancheva | 25c | 47.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Karatancheva | 26c | 44.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Watson | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Karatancheva | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Karatancheva | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…3c33backed Watson | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Watson | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…0fe0backed Watson | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…509cbacked Watson | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…e557backed Watson | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Watson | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb9…6c85backed Karatancheva | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Watson | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…d240backed Watson | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed Watson | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…c351backed Watson | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Watson | 80c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.