TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
GAM Esportsof MVK Esports, GAM Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$285,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x509d…0a6bbacked GAM Esports54c26,935$14,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,436.567056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed MVK Esports45c19,390$8,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,809.631,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked MVK Esports44c15,536$6,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.946131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed GAM Esports52c14,959$7,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,195.0927353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed MVK Esports42c12,932$5,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,494.0535448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked GAM Esports56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4001,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f9…895dbacked GAM Esports60c7,388$4,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,956.6210954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed GAM Esports56c7,125$3,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,152.5164443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed MVK Esports48c6,218$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.1111653.4%62 W · 54 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed MVK Esports49c5,212$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.6148440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed MVK Esports49c4,880$2,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,383.6376639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed GAM Esports69c4,815$3,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.0816254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MVK Esports33c4,468$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.553,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MVK Esports37c4,199$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.551,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MVK Esports51c3,364$1,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.522,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed MVK Esports49c3,274$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.611,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed MVK Esports48c3,029$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.562744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed GAM Esports50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50024029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed MVK Esports46c2,850$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31152848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked GAM Esports60c2,580$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.7146637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked GAM Esports65c2,520$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.183560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MVK Esports26c2,198$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.981,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed GAM Esports47c2,017$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.018028.8%23 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed MVK Esports46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.9957945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed GAM Esports54c1,700$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.2499338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked GAM Esports60c1,665$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.891,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed MVK Esports43c1,607$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.661,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MVK Esports39c1,533$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.261,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed GAM Esports54c1,459$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.962,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed MVK Esports27c1,427$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.0911032.7%36 W · 74 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed GAM Esports53c1,375$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.6819042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MVK Esports47c1,363$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.461,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed MVK Esports43c1,322$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.681,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked MVK Esports41c1,235$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.281,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked GAM Esports42c1,229$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.832,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MVK Esports47c1,132$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.822,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked GAM Esports50c1,099$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.5220649%101 W · 105 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked GAM Esports61c1,089$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.9375942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed GAM Esports60c1,060$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.0523938.1%91 W · 148 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed MVK Esports55c1,032$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.7517039.4%67 W · 103 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed GAM Esports53c1,014$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.0551044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed GAM Esports55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked GAM Esports50c994.33$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.161,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked GAM Esports77c986.2$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8316555.2%91 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked GAM Esports53c973.09$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.3512754.3%69 W · 58 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed MVK Esports46c940.03$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.425644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…202abacked GAM Esports61c907.69$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.267062.9%44 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fef…8c79backed GAM Esports57c894.26$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.0526246.9%123 W · 139 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed4d…6a0bbacked MVK Esports50c891.4$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.619637.5%36 W · 60 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed MVK Esports50c860.94$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.471,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked GAM Esports59c814.5$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.6113761.3%84 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed GAM Esports55c796.93$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.861,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked MVK Esports38c796.68$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1222545.8%103 W · 122 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed GAM Esports78c779.01$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.0453753.6%288 W · 249 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed GAM Esports59c766.37$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7248742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96dd…ff8ebacked GAM Esports56c750$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked GAM Esports69c747.44$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.211,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed MVK Esports41c733.73$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8310048%48 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed MVK Esports47c725.89$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.5286144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…40a1backed MVK Esports41c725.42$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-61.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed GAM Esports60c692.95$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.371,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed MVK Esports18c673.26$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1645618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed GAM Esports56c663.06$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.961,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed MVK Esports16c660.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.171,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0f6…a31cbacked MVK Esports30c659.04$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3420739.6%82 W · 125 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked GAM Esports63c641.04$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.1423751.5%122 W · 115 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed GAM Esports62c640$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.226443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed GAM Esports51c638.92$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.1345041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked GAM Esports57c607.91$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.514139%16 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed GAM Esports56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked GAM Esports62c595.13$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.91,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed MVK Esports50c587.54$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9121749.8%108 W · 109 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed GAM Esports61c579.99$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.2211111.7%13 W · 98 L-17.1wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-78.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed GAM Esports77c570.94$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.344254.8%23 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed MVK Esports29c568.96$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.592,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed GAM Esports55c554.99$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.741,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed GAM Esports53c549.54$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.995545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked MVK Esports41c537.88$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9156341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed GAM Esports61c515.59$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.0828350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked GAM Esports57c513.33$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.0829944.1%132 W · 167 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671e…a831backed MVK Esports22c509.6$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed GAM Esports57c505$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.151723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-61.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7689…af2abacked MVK Esports49c502.05$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.8717535.4%62 W · 113 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed GAM Esports57c500.1$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.0424643.1%106 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d6…ef9dbacked GAM Esports50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed GAM Esports46c500$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed GAM Esports57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2159347.3%44 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a8…b07ebacked GAM Esports56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked GAM Esports56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4329…3ff8backed GAM Esports56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf376…b135backed GAM Esports56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566b…ceb9backed MVK Esports48c498.12$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.3414348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed GAM Esports54c486.2$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.651,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed GAM Esports54c486.2$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.6544042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked GAM Esports59c485.91$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3830035%105 W · 195 L-21.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed GAM Esports53c485.9$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3740435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12cb…4fe3backed GAM Esports80c475.15$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.127266.7%48 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed GAM Esports53c457.68$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.513,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked GAM Esports64c456.89$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.011,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked MVK Esports46c451.92$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8813545.9%62 W · 73 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.