Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5e11e27183ae3ccce1961b88d77f6ed8e0007e7d051399a6d25c1429384945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 33c | 1,275$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.55 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 26c | 1,073$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.46 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Yes | 58c | 944.86$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 39c | 692.44$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.53 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 75c | 666.66$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 52c | 579.45$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.13 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 29c | 571.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.25 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 74c | 494.98$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.02 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 459.34$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 23c | 387.51$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.25 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba4bbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 238$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 24c | 232.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 23c | 212.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.01 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…1cabbacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 127.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…6648backed Yes | 40c | 123.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 122.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Yes | 37c | 105.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…3b5bbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…11f8backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb468…0cbabacked Yes | 39c | 95.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 95.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 35c | 78.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…96f0backed Yes | 77c | 64.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe96f…ff4bbacked Yes | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 24c | 58.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 56c | 54.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 61c | 51.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked No | 63c | 51.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 67c | 50.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 30c | 49.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 45.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 28c | 43.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 75c | 42.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +17.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 40.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 67c | 38.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 36c | 37.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 60c | 33.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…5503backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…fd2ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 63c | 29.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.