Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8849ae6f5d61db4f339374449ef60dff4be57a69390cb2b93f8741ea8780eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,760 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 3,078$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.01 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…51b0backed Over | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 27c | 1,490$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…1e95backed Over | 22c | 1,001$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 76c | 921.05$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.05 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 28c | 879.87$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 75c | 806.75$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.33 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…f86ebacked Over | 27c | 637.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 69c | 458.08$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 329.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 325.53$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 33c | 290.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 73c | 284.15$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 25c | 260.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Under | 74c | 220$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 65c | 214.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 24c | 201.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 65c | 198.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 56c | 171.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 79c | 165.24$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Under | 73c | 163.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…b654backed Under | 73c | 161.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Under | 73c | 160.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 22c | 159.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…d5a3backed Under | 64c | 158.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Under | 73c | 152.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 74c | 126.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 125.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 124.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 124.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…7101backed Over | 28c | 118.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 58c | 117.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 73c | 114.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa879…fff5backed Under | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 108.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 47c | 106.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked Under | 62c | 105.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 103.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 27c | 75.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…492ebacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Under | 67c | 69.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Over | 42c | 56.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 52.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 26c | 52.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 62c | 48.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 47.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 28c | 44.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 44.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Under | 73c | 41.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 48c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…258ebacked Over | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 75c | 33.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…cdf9backed Under | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 36c | 28.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 70c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 70c | 26.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 73c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 53c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…ff2fbacked Under | 80c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Auckland FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.