TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$627,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$709,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons58c85,894$49,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,642.821,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Falcons47c46,379$21,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,704.3716147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Falcons49c43,402$21,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,088.7196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x205c…9192backed Team Liquid39c25,187$9,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,364.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid56c25,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,999.9527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid50c23,957$12,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,866.6980256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Team Falcons60c23,097$13,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,877.335244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Liquid44c21,269$9,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,985.5831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Liquid47c21,175$10,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,127.6689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd472…a5b2backed Team Falcons61c20,509$12,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,561.281070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons54c19,736$10,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,585.8928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Liquid38c18,172$6,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,186.3636041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Liquid65c17,722$11,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,145.4641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Team Liquid38c17,405$6,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,802.363647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Liquid43c16,050$6,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,205.515848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Liquid57c12,160$6,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,228.651,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Team Liquid51c11,491$5,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,630.5218351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid42c11,169$4,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,467.4936248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Liquid42c10,400$4,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,980.5813854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid51c10,224$5,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,009.645139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cef…0f4cbacked Team Falcons0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30022848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Falcons61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,10033746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid52c9,650$5,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,63256955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Liquid46c9,391$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,071.2771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Team Falcons47c7,001$3,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.051735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Liquid57c7,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,01024153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Falcons61c5,763$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.6693546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Team Liquid53c5,625$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.5312557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Team Liquid52c5,296$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.4113851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Liquid48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Falcons39c4,538$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75816954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Liquid38c4,454$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.7869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5257…f324backed Team Liquid59c4,303$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.871770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+49.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Liquid53c4,186$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Team Liquid44c4,091$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.094652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Team Liquid50c4,042$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.986842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Team Falcons52c4,041$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.078847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed Team Falcons52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0804957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed Team Falcons65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6007864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Falcons50c3,979$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99213442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Liquid53c3,673$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.2535951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Team Falcons55c3,646$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Team Liquid40c3,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10012630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1112…b9c0backed Team Falcons65c3,500$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.9549455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Liquid53c3,261$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.0477256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons51c3,067$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.4860349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Falcons48c3,024$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.6653764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Liquid39c3,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Team Liquid37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89015144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Falcons49c2,940$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43348539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Falcons47c2,931$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Liquid37c2,787$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.6532951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid56c2,657$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.0641351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Team Liquid35c2,591$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.432857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid45c2,525$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.021,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Team Liquid52c2,396$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.1411753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Falcons17c2,361$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.881,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid53c2,353$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.461,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Team Liquid35c2,285$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.052330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed Team Falcons44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons40c2,227$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.582,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fe…bcd7backed Team Falcons18c2,172$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.046847.1%32 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Liquid36c2,040$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.4788539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Team Liquid53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9403562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team Liquid38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24018550.8%94 W · 91 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Liquid39c2,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23017146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Team Liquid37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2604843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons51c2,000$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.161,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Liquid39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Team Falcons1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201153.5%4 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Liquid38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.9681029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid52c1,861$962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.71,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Falcons5c1,815$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7130138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb03b…4197backed Team Liquid54c1,800$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8282142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7625…78dbbacked Team Liquid68c1,774$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Team Liquid53c1,704$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.768459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons48c1,699$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.4436343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a6…03abbacked Team Falcons45c1,693$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.936555.4%36 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Team Liquid47c1,677$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.016744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Falcons48c1,630$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.9232441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Team Liquid38c1,620$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.417047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…36e8backed Team Falcons36c1,588$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.52025%5 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Falcons47c1,540$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.8954246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Team Liquid37c1,529$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Liquid56c1,500$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.8451140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Team Liquid54c1,466$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.3135151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Team Falcons34c1,455$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab71…2adabacked Team Falcons62c1,449$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.644647.8%22 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons34c1,444$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.9899844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Liquid71c1,400$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.7936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Falcons40c1,355$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54443344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Falcons52c1,346$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.8795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Falcons17c1,293$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7358746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Team Falcons40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.999565.3%62 W · 33 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Falcons49c1,230$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.328544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Liquid47c1,200$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Team Falcons47c1,170$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.95740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Team Falcons62c1,169$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72522450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.