NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd06821ac07d6b283e93086880f1281a746fee725198154c1db354e6edfa5421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 45c | 861.56$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.45 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 55c | 803$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.95 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 63c | 794.26$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.2 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Yes | 36c | 408.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.16 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Yes | 42c | 399.6$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 56c | 300.91$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.12 | 99 | 75.8%75 W · 24 L | +16.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 45c | 176.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Yes | 54c | 169.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…1549backed Yes | 36c | 155.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed Yes | 60c | 97.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed Yes | 36c | 87.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed No | 57c | 83.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…db09backed Yes | 59c | 83.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 26c | 78.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…c59fbacked No | 64c | 71.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 71.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4dd8backed Yes | 54c | 54.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Yes | 44c | 53.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…6701backed Yes | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed No | 53c | 46.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 43c | 28.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed No | 54c | 27.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Hawks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 244.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 245.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 246.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 248.5Under won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.